HSBC raises Vietnam’s 2025 growth forecast to 7.9% after strong Q3 performance

In its latest ‘Vietnam at a glance’ report released on Tuesday, HSBC said Vietnam beat market forecasts with an 8.2 percent GDP growth rate in the third quarter, making it the fastest-growing economy in ASEAN.

This was the second consecutive quarter in which the economy expanded by more than eight percent, easily exceeding expectations.

HSBC noted that while exports from other ASEAN countries to the United States have slowed as early frontloading effects waned, Vietnam’s exports continued to grow at double-digit rates.

The country’s retained trade surplus more than doubled to US$3 billion in the third quarter compared with the first half of the year.

Foreign direct investment also remained a key driver, with inflows rising 15 percent year on year in the third quarter.

Both U.S. and Chinese investors maintained strong commitments despite global economic uncertainty.

Domestic demand has strengthened as well, with retail sales growing 12 percent year on year, while tourism continued to rebound sharply, with Vietnam leading the regional recovery, according to the report.

Given these positive indicators, HSBC raised its 2025 GDP forecast by 1.3 percentage points to 7.9 percent and its 2026 forecast from 5.8 percent to 6.7 percent.

Other major institutions have followed suit.

The Asian Development Bank recently revised Vietnam’s 2025 forecast from 6.6 percent to 6.7 percent, while Singapore-based United Overseas Bank raised its outlook from 6.9 percent to 7.5 percent.

The International Monetary Fund also upgraded its forecast from 5.4 percent to 6.5 percent.

Vietnam has set its own ambitious target for 2025 GDP growth at between 8.3 and 8.5 percent, which was approved by Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh.