New tungsten price cycle: MSR emerges as value stock for global investors

At the Vietcap Investment Day 2026 held in Ho Chi Minh City on Thursday, investors highlighted tungsten as an increasingly critical component of the AI era.

The trend is reshaping the global technology supply chain and opening new investment opportunities for Masan High-Tech Materials (UpCOM: MSR), which owns one of the world's largest tungsten resources outside China.

Tungsten: Physical backbone of future technologies

The rapid development of AI is fueling demand for high-performance computing and hyperscale data centers, where semiconductor chips operate under extreme thermal and electrical stress.

In such environments, tungsten has become nearly irreplaceable thanks to its exceptional hardness – approaching that of diamond – and its outstanding heat resistance.

Metal plays a crucial role in semiconductor manufacturing, precision electronics, and advanced applications ranging from aerospace to defense.

While demand is rising rapidly, global tungsten supply remains heavily concentrated in only a handful of countries.

As a result, stable sources outside China are increasingly valued by global technology and industrial players.

In this context, Vietnam – which is home to the Nui Phao polymetallic mine in northern Thai Nguyen Province, operated by Masan High-Tech Materials – is emerging as an important node in the global technology materials supply chain.

Owning one of the largest producing tungsten mines outside China has positioned MSR as a strategic partner for many international industrial groups and increasingly placed the company on investors' radar as a potential value stock with long-term competitive advantages in advanced materials.

New price cycle, power of integrated value chain

Recent developments in the tungsten market have captured growing investor attention as prices appear to be entering a powerful upward cycle.

At Vietcap Investment Day 2026, Phan Chien Thang, deputy CEO of Masan High-Tech Materials, revealed that the price of APT (ammonium paratungstate) – the company's flagship tungsten product – has now surpassed US$2,500 per mtu.

The figure stands in sharp contrast to the average price of below $500 per mtu recorded in 2025.

Such a dramatic shift suggests that tungsten may be entering a new pricing cycle, driven by rapidly expanding demand from high-tech sectors, particularly semiconductors and artificial intelligence.

For companies that control both resource reserves and advanced processing capabilities, this environment could become a powerful lever for revenue growth and margin expansion.

In the case of Masan High-Tech Materials, the advantage extends beyond resource ownership. The company operates an integrated value chain spanning mining to deep processing, focusing on higher-value tungsten products rather than exporting raw concentrates.

This strategy allows the company to maximize resource value while capturing greater upside during favorable commodity cycles.

The approach also aligns with the investment thesis favored by many global investors: backing companies that combine scarce natural resources with downstream processing capabilities to generate sustainable long-term cash flows.

Financial outlook: Entering 'harvest phase'

Masan High-Tech Materials' financial results in 2025 already signal the early stages of this transition. Its revenue increased 19 percent, while EBITDA surged more than 40 percent, reflecting significantly improved operational efficiency.

Analyses presented at Vietcap Investment Day 2026 suggest that if tungsten prices remain around $2,000 per mtu, MSR's revenue in 2026 could reach approximately $1.3 billion, with net profit estimated at around $240 million.

Even under a more conservative scenario, where APT prices retreat to roughly $1,500 per mtu, the firm's revenue could still approach $1 billion, with its net profit projected at about $160 million.

According to market data from Chinatungsten, APT prices reached approximately $2,525.8 per mtu on Thursday.

The strong momentum suggests that tungsten's price cycle may be entering a more powerful phase than previously expected, reinforcing investor confidence in MSR's growth trajectory.

For investors, this could mark a pivotal moment as the company transitions from an investment-heavy phase to a period of stronger cash generation.

If tungsten prices remain elevated, MSR's 'harvest phase' may only be beginning.

Opportunity in race for strategic materials

More broadly, the global supply chain for strategic minerals is undergoing significant restructuring. Major economies are increasingly prioritizing secure, transparent, and ESG-compliant sources of supply.

In this environment, companies with strategic resources, strong downstream capabilities, and robust ESG practices, such as Masan High-Tech Materials, are well positioned to expand into advanced markets, particularly in the United States and Europe.

As artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and high-performance computing continue to expand – alongside a growing trend among major powers to accumulate critical minerals – demand for technology materials such as tungsten is expected to remain structurally strong.

With its resource advantages and integrated value chain, MSR is increasingly attracting attention from both domestic and international investors as a value stock tied to the next growth cycle of strategic materials in the AI era.