El Nino forms, raises drought, water shortage risks in Vietnam

El Nino is a natural climate phenomenon characterized by the abnormal warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.

It alters global weather patterns and leads to significant changes in temperature, rainfall, and wind, typically occurring every two to seven years and lasting about nine to 12 months.

Speaking to Tuoi Tre (Youth) newspaper on Sunday, Hoang Phuc Lam, deputy director of the center, said the current El Nino event has developed faster than usual.

Lam said that sea surface temperature anomalies in the Nino 3.4 region reached about +0.5 degrees Celsius in May and rose to around +0.7 degrees Celsius in early June, confirming that El Nino conditions have taken hold.

He added that the transition from neutral conditions to El Nino has been unusually rapid, driven by strong warming in the central Pacific and favorable ocean-atmosphere interactions.

Forecast models indicate that El Nino is likely to strengthen through the end of 2026 and may persist into early 2027.

Current assessments suggest a 60-65 percent probability of a very strong event, with an intensity comparable to the 2015–16 El Nino and potentially placing it among the strongest episodes since 1950.

If this scenario materializes, Vietnam is expected to experience higher-than-average temperatures, fewer cold air surges, and widespread rainfall deficits, particularly in the central, Central Highlands, and southern regions.

Such conditions could significantly increase the risk of drought, water shortages, and saltwater intrusion in late 2026 and early 2027, authorities warned.

Lam also cautioned that although the number of storms and tropical depressions affecting Vietnam typically declines during El Nino years, intense storms can still develop and cause severe damage, meaning disaster risks should not be underestimated.

Nationally, temperatures in the final months of 2026 are forecast to be 0.5-1.5 degrees Celsius above the long-term average.

From October to December, temperatures in some areas could rise to one to two degrees Celsius above average, increasing the likelihood of prolonged heatwaves.

Northern and central Vietnam are expected to experience more frequent hot spells through the remainder of the 2026 summer season, with some locations potentially recording all-time high temperatures.

Rainfall is also projected to decline significantly under El Nino conditions, with deficits of 25-50 percent expected in most parts of the country.

The reductions are likely to be most pronounced along the south-central coast, in the Central Highlands, and across southern Vietnam.

As a result, the risk of localized or widespread drought is expected to increase, particularly in areas with high water demand for production and daily use.

However, Lam emphasized that below-average rainfall does not eliminate the possibility of extreme precipitation events.

Vietnam may still experience record-breaking rainfall over short periods, as seen during previous El Nino episodes, including severe flooding in northern Quang Ninh Province in July 2015 and major floods in central Quang Nam and Quang Ngai Provinces following Typhoon Ketsana in 2009.