From Robusta powerhouse to value-added coffee: Vietnam's next move

Coffee futures on the London and New York exchanges extended gains for a third straight session at the close of trading on August 5.

Coffee prices rise for third straight session

Coffee prices continued to rise on August 5, with Robusta futures in London gaining 0.8-0.92 percent for a third straight session to $3,884 per metric ton, while Arabica in New York rose 0.51-0.88 percent for a second consecutive session to around $6,870 per metric ton.

The rally lifted domestic coffee prices by about VND500 to VND99,000-99,500 ($3.8) per kilogram, with some traders offering VND100,000 for beans containing more than 90 percent ripe cherries.

Traders also quoted the 2026-2027 crop at VND91,000-93,000 per kilogram, lower than a year earlier on expectations of a larger harvest.

According to Vietnam's Agency of Foreign Trade, Vietnam exported 1.05 million metric tons of coffee worth $4.8 billion in the first half of 2026, with volume up 7.4 percent year on year but export value down 13.8 percent as average prices declined.

Robusta remained the dominant export, accounting for 883,100 metric tons worth $3.5 billion, while Arabica exports totaled 59,500 metric tons valued at $371.9 million.

Vietnam shifts toward higher-value coffee

According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS), the world's five largest coffee-producing countries are expected to account for nearly three-quarters of global green coffee output in the 2025-26 marketing year. 

Brazil remains the largest producer with 63 million 60-kg bags, while Vietnam ranks second with 31.7 million bags, up from 29 million a year earlier.

Vietnam continues to dominate global Robusta production, with the variety accounting for about 30 million bags of its total output, compared with around 1 million bags of Arabica. 

Higher prices over the past year have encouraged farmers to expand harvested areas and invest more in fertilizers and other inputs, boosting yields. 

Robusta output alone is projected to rise to 31.4 million bags, reinforcing Vietnam's position as the world's leading producer of the variety.

The Central Highlands remains the country's coffee heartland, producing about 90 percent of national output, while favorable weather, high coffee prices and increased investment in fertilizers have helped lift yields and expand harvested area.

FAS forecasts Vietnam's total coffee exports will rise to 27 million bags in the 2025-2026 marketing year. 

More significantly, exports of roasted, ground and soluble coffee are projected to increase to 3.3 million bags from 2.8 million a year earlier, driven by new investment in processing and growing demand across Asian markets.

USDA said rising export prices have created an opportunity for Vietnam to move beyond its role as the world's leading Robusta producer by capturing more value from processed coffee, thereby strengthening the industry's competitiveness in global markets.

With average export prices reaching about $5,630 per metric ton in early 2025, up 143 percent from a year earlier, Vietnam is well positioned not only to increase output but also to expand exports of higher-value processed coffee products, including roasted, ground, and soluble coffee.