Ho Chi Minh City targets 10.2% GRDP growth in 2026 on new growth drivers, reforms

The city entered 2026 on a strong foundation built in 2025, but achieving double-digit growth will depend on its ability to turn favorable conditions into higher investment, stronger productivity, and more effective governance.

Key growth drivers

The city's 2025 GRDP grew 8.03 percent year on year, excluding the oil and gas sector, according to the Ho Chi Minh City administration.

The momentum continued into 2026, with GRDP expanding 8.55 percent year on year in the first six months, the strongest first-half growth recorded in a decade.

Exports reached US$47.61 billion, up five percent from a year earlier, while services grew 8.89 percent and industry and construction 8.50 percent.

Industrial production rose 11.1 percent year on year, whereas retail sales and consumer service revenue increased 13.2 percent, reflecting resilient domestic demand.

Registered foreign direct investment reached $6.8 billion in the first half of 2026, up 114.2 percent from a year ago and equivalent to 62 percent of the annual target.

Against this backdrop, the Vietnamese government on June 27 assigned Ho Chi Minh City a 10.2-percent GRDP growth target for 2026 and a 10.25-percent average growth rate for the 2026-30 period under Resolution No. 169/NQ-CP, according to Sai Gon Giai Phong (Liberated Saigon) newspaper.

On May 7, the municipal Party Committee issued Directive No. 11-CT/TU on boosting economic growth, identifying double-digit growth as a central political task for the southern metropolis in 2026-30.

Coordinated efforts key to success

Achieving the target will require coordinated efforts to boost investment, industrial production, exports, consumption and innovation, the Ho Chi Minh City Institute for Development Studies said.

The institute said the city needs to accelerate public and private investment, stimulate consumption and services, attract foreign direct investment, and develop new growth drivers such as the digital economy and innovation.

It estimated that total social investment would need to reach about VND1.18 quadrillion ($44.5 billion), with funding expected from public investment, foreign-invested enterprises, and the domestic private sector.

Truong Minh Huy Vu, director of the institute, said Ho Chi Minh City would need to sustain growth of more than 11 percent in the third quarter and about 12 percent in the fourth quarter to meet its annual target.

At a meeting of the municipal Party Committee on July 6, city chairman Nguyen Van Duoc said the city would mobilize investment resources to create new momentum for growth in the second half of the year.

Duoc said public investment disbursement had reached about 35 percent, with the city aiming to raise the rate to 70 percent by the end of the third quarter and complete disbursement by year-end.

He also said the city had cut about 30 percent of administrative procedures and would continue efforts to reduce another 50 percent to improve the investment and business environment.

Hoang Vu Thanh, director of the city's Department of Finance, described achieving a 100-percent public investment disbursement rate as a major political task that would support its growth target.

Public investment alone, however, will not be enough.

Nguyen Khac Hoang, head of the municipal Statistics Office, recommended stimulating domestic consumption, supporting businesses, and expanding exports while continuing institutional reforms, promoting innovation, improving productivity, advancing digital transformation, and strengthening decentralization with greater accountability.

Tran Luu Quang, secretary of the municipal Party Committee, called on authorities to accelerate strategic infrastructure projects, remove investment-related obstacles, and evaluate officials based on work efficiency and measurable results rather than administrative processes.

He also called for attracting higher-quality investment by building new development ecosystems instead of relying on traditional advantages such as land and tax incentives.

At a conference on June 30, chairman Duoc said the city's development of an international financial center would help shift its approach from attracting individual projects to creating an ecosystem capable of drawing high-quality capital.

He noted that global investment is increasingly selective, with capital flowing toward high-tech industries, green finance, the digital economy, semiconductors, artificial intelligence, clean energy, and innovation.