India expects 2026 monsoon rains to be below average

The lifeblood of a nearly $4-trillion economy that is the third largest in Asia, the monsoon brings almost 70% of ⁠the rains needed to water farms and refill aquifers and reservoirs.

The monsoon is expected to reach 90% of the long-period average this year, said M. Ravichandran, a secretary in the earth sciences ministry.

An El Nino weather effect is likely to develop soon and influence rainfall during the four-month monsoon season from June to September, he added.

The India Meteorological Department defines normal rainfall ‌as ⁠being between 96% and 104% of a 50-year average of 87 cm (35 inches) for the four-month season.

The South Asian nation is forecast to receive below-average rainfall in June, standing at less than 92% of ⁠the long-period average, Ravichandran said.

The El Nino is caused when ocean temperatures exceed normal in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, typically bringing ⁠hot and dry weather to Southeast Asia and other parts of the world.

India has received below-average rainfall during most previous ⁠El Nino years, sometimes leading to severe droughts that destroyed crops and forced curbs on grain exports.