Mining arm of Vietnam’s Masan Group poised to capitalize on tungsten price supercycle

Tungsten enters rare structural upcycle

Tungsten is a critical and difficult-to-substitute material, widely used in semiconductors, aerospace, defense, and other high-tech applications due to its exceptional heat resistance, hardness, and durability.

After several relatively subdued years, the tungsten market is now experiencing a rare and powerful upcycle.

As of February 28, the price of Ammonium Paratungstate (APT), a key intermediate material in tungsten metal production, was recorded at US$1,944.20 per mtu, up 74.6 percent from the beginning of the year.

The rapid and sustained rally over the first two months has pushed APT prices to multi-year highs. Some analysts forecast that prices could surpass the $2,000/mtu threshold as early as Q1 2026 if the current momentum continues.

Importantly, the current price surge does not appear to be the result of a short-term supply shock. Rather, it reflects structural shifts in the market's supply-demand dynamics.

Tungsten production remains heavily concentrated in a handful of countries and is increasingly influenced by resource policies.

The combination of rising demand and concentrated supply has made the market more sensitive to disruptions, thereby supporting the case for elevated price levels over the medium-to-long term.

A decisive factor shaping supply and demand today is China's dominant market position.

The country accounts for approximately 82 percent of global tungsten output and controls nearly 90 percent of APT processing capacity.

According to TungstenStore, China's tungsten export quota for the first half of 2026 has been reduced by 12 percent compared to the same period in 2025 and could face further downward adjustments in the coming months.

As concentrated supply tightens amid growing demand, the market becomes increasingly sensitive to volatility, reinforcing a high price environment over an extended period.

Strategic mineral security reshapes global demand

The price momentum is driven not only by commercial factors but also by the growing trend of strategic stockpiling among major economies.

Many countries now regard critical minerals as a cornerstone of economic and defense security, particularly amid prolonged technological rivalry and geopolitical tensions.

According to publicly available documents from the Defense Logistics Agency (DLA), the Trump administration has recently accelerated efforts to expand the U.S. national stockpile.

This move follows tighter export controls imposed by China on several minerals where it holds a dominant position in the global supply chain, particularly critical minerals and permanent magnets.

As governments now enter the market directly as long-term buyers, an additional layer of structurally resilient demand may emerge, one that is less dependent on economic cycles.

This dynamic could help sustain prices at elevated levels over a longer period, rather than merely reflecting a short-term spike.

Vietnamese mining stands to gain from global supply chain shifts

Vietnam is widely regarded as a country with significant potential in critical minerals, positioning it to participate in alternative supply chains.

According to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Vietnam holds an estimated 3.5 million tonnes of rare-earth reserves, ranking sixth globally, and places tenth worldwide in total mineral reserves.

This resource potential provides the country with a strategic advantage in diversifying supply sources and strengthening resource security for multiple economies.

Within this landscape, Masan High-Tech Materials, the mining arm of Masan Group (HOSE: MSN), owns the Nui Phao polymetallic tungsten mine, recognized as the world's largest operating tungsten mine outside China in terms of reserves.

The company has built fully integrated capabilities across the tungsten value chain, from mining and processing to the production of high-tech materials under a closed-loop model.

As the trend of critical mineral stockpiling accelerates and long-term demand prospects remain positive, MSR stands to benefit from a sustained high-price environment and structural demand growth.

For the fiscal year 2025, Masan High-Tech Materials recorded revenue of VND7,443 billion ($283.8 million), up 19 percent year on year on a comparable basis following the divestment of H.C. Starck.

The results reflect the effectiveness of its restructuring strategy, cost optimization efforts, and operational efficiency improvements amid more favorable market conditions.

Heading into 2026, should tungsten prices maintain their upward trajectory, actual business performance could exceed targets.

Notably, MSR shares have posted three consecutive sessions of gains, breaking past previous highs, underscoring growing market expectations for both the sector and the company.

Laying groundwork for long-term expansion

From a long-term strategic perspective, the company said it is accelerating the completion of legal procedures for new projects, including plans to mine an additional 28 million tonnes of ore and expand exploration activities in adjacent prospective areas.

The additional resources are expected to extend the mine's life, increase mining capacity, and lay the groundwork for growth over the coming years.

With a strengthened balance sheet, an expanding portfolio of critical minerals, and a favorable industry outlook, Masan High-Tech Materials is well-positioned for further expansion.

Analysts view the prospect of double-digit growth as attainable, reinforcing the company's ability to enhance shareholder value and deepen its role in the global high-tech materials value chain.