Singapore’s UOB raises Vietnam’s 2025 GDP growth forecast to 7.5%

In its Vietnam economic outlook report released on Wednesday, UOB highlighted the country’s remarkable resilience in the second quarter, surpassing expectations and demonstrating its ability to withstand global economic and political uncertainties.

Vietnam’s GDP grew 7.96 percent year on year in Q2, exceeding Bloomberg’s forecast of 6.85 percent and UOB’s earlier projection of 6.1 percent.

For the first half of the year, the GDP growth reached 7.52 percent compared to the same period in 2024, marking the fastest six-month expansion since 2011.

UOB attributed this strong momentum to a 14-percent rise in exports, supported by improved market sentiment after the U.S. scaled back reciprocal tariffs from its initial announcements.

Trade tensions eased further when the U.S. finalized country-specific tariffs before the August 1 deadline, setting Vietnam’s rate at 20 percent instead of the initially proposed 46 percent.

This latest projection is well above UOB’s previous forecast of 6.9 percent.

However, the bank cautioned that potential weakening of U.S. demand due to tariff-related price pressures remains a risk, even as exports continue to expand strongly.

Beyond GDP, UOB spotlighted other recent economic indicators demonstrating Vietnam’s ability to navigate global instability.

Exports in July alone surged 17 percent year on year to a record US$42.3 billion, bringing cumulative growth for the year to nearly 16 percent.

Despite tariff pressures, annual export growth is still expected to reach around 10 percent, slightly below the 14 percent recorded in 2024.

The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rebounded to 52.4 in July after three consecutive months below the 50-mark, while industrial output rose nine percent year on year.

FDI inflows reached $13.6 billion by July, surpassing $12.6 billion in the same period last year, suggesting full-year FDI could exceed $20 billion.

Vietnam also unveiled a $48 billion infrastructure investment plan in mid-August, covering 250 projects.

The government will fund 129 of these projects, focusing on urban development and transportation, with total public investment reaching $18 billion.

The Southeast Asian country has set a target of 8.3–8.5 percent GDP growth for 2025.