Tokyo inland earthquake likely to kill 18,000: new govt estimate

Economic loss could reach 83 trillion yen, the government said.

According to the fresh estimate, made by a working group, such a massive earthquake would measure at least upper six on the Japanese seismic intensity scale of seven in many areas mainly in Tokyo and the three prefectures of Chiba, Kanagawa and Saitama.

Damage is projected to become the worst if the temblor strikes the metropolitan area at around 6:00 pm on a winter day while the wind is blowing with a velocity of eight meters per second, with some 110,000 buildings collapsing and some 270,000 others burning down.

About 5,300 people would be killed in the building collapses and about 12,000 in the fires.

The combined number of buildings that are likely to collapse or burn down, however, is down over 30 pct from the previous government estimate in 2013, thanks to progress in residential seismic retrofitting, wider use of seismic breakers and fewer opportunities to use fire.

The estimated overall death toll is more than 20 pct lower.

Besides, the government newly figures that about 16,000 to 41,000 people would die of causes that are not directly related to the disaster.

The number may increase if power and water outages prolong to confine evacuees in shelters for a long period, it pointed out.

On the economic front, direct losses, such as on building collapses, are estimated to amount to around 45 trillion yen.

In a year after the disaster, weaker business activities in the manufacturing and service sectors and other negative effects are forecast to cause some 38 trillion yen in loss.

The government also suggested the possibility of about 8.4 million people in a broader area including Ibaraki Prefecture having difficulty walking back home on the day of the earthquake.

The number of evacuees could rise up to around 4.8 million in two weeks if electricity and tap water outages continue, it added.

Moreover, the government expressed concerns about artificial intelligence-generated fake images and misinformation being spread on social media and sparking turmoil in the aftermath of the shake.

In the wake of the release of the new estimate, disaster management minister Jiro Akama vowed to use the provided data to update response measures.

"We should maintain the capital's core functions and reduce extreme damage," he said.

In addition to the inland earthquake-related damage projections, the government presented its views on the outcome of a possible quake in the Sagami Trough off the coast of the Kanto region, which contains Tokyo.

Although its event probability is low, an eight-magnitude-class earthquake in the trough could unleash disastrous tsunami and kill around 23,000 people, it said.