UOB raises Vietnam’s 2025 GDP growth forecast to 6.9%

UOB's latest assessment reflected a more optimistic outlook for Vietnam’s trade performance.

The bank expected a modest five-percent increase in exports to the United States in 2025, reversing its earlier projection of a 20-percent decline.

Exports to markets outside the U.S. are also forecast to rise by 10 percent, maintaining momentum close to the 11.3-percent growth seen in 2024.

The bank anticipated quarterly GDP growth rates of some 6.4 percent in both the third and fourth quarters of 2025, contributing to the new full-year forecast of 6.9 percent.

The disbursement of foreign direct investment (FDI) is projected to reach around US$20 billion by year-end.

Data from the General Statistics Office of Vietnam indicated the country's GDP expanded by 7.96 percent year on year in the second quarter of 2025, significantly surpassing earlier projections by financial institutions.

During the first half of the year, Vietnam’s GDP grew by 7.52 percent compared to the same period in 2024, marking the strongest H1 growth since 2011.

Between January and June, the Southeast Asian country recorded its export turnover at $219 billion, a 14.4-percent year-on-year increase.

Computer and electronic products remained the key earner, with a surge of 42 percent year on year.

Alongside mobile phones and machinery, these three groups of items accounted for nearly 46 percent of Vietnam's total export value during the period.

FDI disbursement also hit a record high since 2021, reaching $11.7 billion in the first half of 2025, up more than eight percent year on year.

The manufacturing and processing sector attracted $9.56 billion, or over 81 percent of the total disbursed FDI.

In late June, the European Chamber of Commerce in Vietnam released the Business Confidence Index of European businesses in the country in the second quarter, revealing an evolving but still resilient outlook among these companies.

The index eased slightly to 61.1 amidst global uncertainties, but the European firms maintained confidence in Vietnam’s long-term growth trajectory.

A solid 78 percent of the respondents expect improved business conditions over the next five years, up seven percentage points from the previous quarter.

This growing optimism signals continued belief in Vietnam’s structural growth story.

Besides, 72 percent of surveyed business leaders would recommend Vietnam as an investment destination.