Vietnam population tops 102 million, ranks 16th globally but faces long-term decline risk

The information was shared by representatives of the Vietnam Population Authority (VPA) under the Ministry of Health at a conference reviewing population work in 2025 and outlining key tasks for 2026, held in Hanoi on Thursday.

According to the VPA, Vietnam achieved a replacement-level fertility rate of 2.1 births per woman in 2006 and maintained it until 2021, a milestone that supported positive demographic restructuring and marked the start of its so-called 'golden' population period in 2007.

During this phase, the working-age population expanded rapidly, creating favorable conditions for economic growth.

A 'golden' population structure is characterized by every two working-age people aged 15 to 64 supporting one dependent person under 15 or aged 65 and above.

However, new demographic challenges have emerged in recent years. Vietnam's total fertility rate fell from 2.1 births per woman in 2021 to 1.93 in 2025, or 0.17 below the replacement level.

At the same time, young people are marrying later and having fewer children than previous generations, further accelerating the decline in fertility, according to the VPA.

Last year, Vietnam remained the third most populous country in Southeast Asia and the 16th largest globally, with its population standing at 102.3 million.

Still, population officials warned that if birth rates continue to fall, Vietnam is expected to exit its 'golden' population period by 2036, giving way to an aging and eventually super-aging society marked by shrinking younger and middle-aged cohorts and a rapid rise in the elderly population.

From 2051, the population is projected to enter a phase of negative growth, meaning the total population would begin to decline, a trend often associated with sustained low fertility and accelerated population aging, experts said.

Meanwhile, earlier projections released by the National Statistics Office under the Ministry of Finance in late December 2025 indicated that Vietnam's population would continue to grow over the coming decades, albeit at a slowing pace, and is expected to peak around 2059, Thanh Nien (Young People) newspaper reported.

Over the 50-year period from 2024 to 2074, population growth outcomes are projected to vary depending on fertility scenarios.

Under a low-fertility scenario of 1.45 births per woman, the population is expected to rise by just 2.5 percent to about 103.9 million.

With a medium fertility rate of 1.85, the population could grow by 12.7 percent to 114.2 million, while a high-fertility level of 2.01 would result in a 17-percent increase to 118.5 million.