Vietnam projected to enter aging society within next decade

According to the ‘Vietnam Population Projections, 2024-74,’ jointly conducted by the National Statistics Office under Vietnam’s Ministry of Finance and the United Nations Population Fund, the country’s population under the medium-fertility scenario will reach about 104.7 million by 2029.

The population is projected to continue growing thereafter, although trends will diverge depending on future fertility levels.

Population continues to grow, but at slower pace

Under the medium-fertility scenario, Vietnam’s population is projected to exceed 110 million by 2039 and reach around 114.2 million by 2074.

By contrast, the low-fertility scenario suggests the population could decline to about 103.9 million by 2074, while the high-fertility scenario projects a peak of 118.5 million.

Over the 50-year projection period, Vietnam’s population would increase by only about 12.7 percent under the medium scenario, a modest rise compared with previous decades.

The report shows that as of 2024, Vietnam remained in its ‘golden’ population structure, with people aged 15-64 accounting for the largest share of the population.

However, this demographic window is narrowing, with the country projected to exit the golden population phase around 2036, three years earlier than forecast in 2019.

During the remaining years of this golden population period, the working-age population will continue to expand before peaking at about 69.5 million people in 2038.

After that, it is expected to enter a prolonged decline, falling to around 61.6 million by 2074.

This indicates that Vietnam has only a limited timeframe left to capitalize on its labor force advantage before facing labor shortages and rising dependency pressures.

Rapid aging toward ‘super-aged’ society

While the labor force gradually shrinks, the elderly population is projected to grow rapidly.

In 2024, Vietnam had an estimated 14.2 million people aged 60 and above, with the figure calculated to rise to 20.9 million by 2034, 27.5 million by 2044, and 38.5 million by 2074.

The fastest growth is seen among those aged 80 and above, a group requiring intensive health and social care.

Over the first decade of the projection period, the number of people aged 80 and over is expected to increase from about two million to 3.3 million.

Over the 50-year horizon, this age group is projected to expand nearly eightfold.

Under international criteria, Vietnam will officially enter an aging society by 2034, when people aged 65 and above make up 14 percent of the population.

The aging phase is expected to last around 15 years, before Vietnam transitions to a ‘super-aged’ society from 2050, with the proportion of those aged 65 and over exceeding 21 percent.

Another notable feature is the clear predominance of women among the elderly, reflecting higher female life expectancy and underscoring the need for gender-sensitive social security and care policies.

Preparing for long-term demographic change

Facing profound demographic shifts, experts stress the urgency of making full use of the remaining golden population period through stronger investment in education and skills training, particularly digital and vocational skills, to boost labor productivity and national competitiveness.

At the same time, Vietnam needs to prepare early for rapid aging by developing a multi-tiered social security system, expanding long-term care services, and promoting home-based and community-based care models.

Encouraging the participation of older people in economic and social life, along with targeted policies for elderly women, could help ease pressure on the welfare system.

In addition, rapid urbanization requires urban planning to be grounded in demographic evidence, with a focus on developing green, smart, and age-friendly cities.

Strengthening population data systems, enhancing international cooperation on demographic research and policymaking, and proactively addressing the long-term consequences of sex ratio imbalances at birth are also identified as key components of Vietnam’s demographic response strategy.