Vietnam sets 3 tourism growth scenarios, with top target of 50mn foreign visitors by 2030

Vietnam’s Ministry of Culture, Sports and Tourism has issued a development plan for the tourism sector tied to the goal of achieving double-digit growth.

The plan is to help the tourism sector contribute to the country’s goal of economic growth of at least 10 percent in 2026 while maintaining macroeconomic stability, controlling inflation and ensuring major economic balances.

The plan also aims to develop tourism into a spearhead economic sector in the new era.

The plan sets out three groups of tasks corresponding to different time periods.

The first focuses on maintaining growth momentum and achieving the target of 25-27 million international tourist arrivals in 2026.

The second covers medium-term tasks and solutions to stabilize growth and lay the foundation for sustainable development from 2027 to 2030.

The third consists of long-term tasks and solutions to maintain continuous growth and ensure double-digit expansion for the tourism sector throughout 2026-30.

In 2026, the tourism sector targets 25-27 million international visitors and 150-153 million domestic tourist trips.

Tourism revenue is expected to reach VND1.125-1.23 quadrillion ($43.4-47.5 billion), contributing to the country’s goal of achieving GDP growth of at least 10 percent this year.

The high-growth scenario assumes the tourism sector maintains the strong momentum recorded since the beginning of the year and that the impacts of the Middle East conflict are resolved soon.

Under this scenario, Vietnam would welcome 27 million international visitors and 153 million domestic tourists in 2026.

To achieve the target, the tourism sector will focus on strongly attracting Chinese visitors, maintaining growth in the South Korean and Indian markets, and promoting strong growth in the Russian market.

The low-growth scenario applies if unfavorable conditions persist, with geopolitical conflicts continuing to affect tourist flows, disruptions to air connectivity and persistently high oil prices affecting both international and domestic travel.

Under this scenario, Vietnam would receive 23.2 million international visitors and 148 million domestic tourists in 2026.

By 2030, Vietnam is expected to maintain its position among Southeast Asia’s leading tourism destinations in terms of size and growth.

It outlines three scenarios for tourist growth.

Under the low-growth scenario, international arrivals would increase by 8-10 percent annually, reaching around 35-38 million by 2030, while domestic tourism would grow steadily to about 155 million trips.

Under the medium-growth scenario, international arrivals would increase by 12-15 percent annually, reaching around 40-45 million by 2030, while domestic tourism would reach about 158 million trips.

Under the high-growth scenario, international arrivals would increase by 15-18 percent annually, reaching 45-50 million by 2030.

Domestic tourism would reach around 160 million trips, with a focus on high-spending visitors and longer stays.