Vietnam stock market recovery continues, key resistance looms at 1,780 points

The benchmark gained 32.28 points, or 1.9 percent, last week to close at 1,768.06, extending its rebound for a second straight week.

Market liquidity also improved, with total trading value reaching VND91.47 trillion (US$3.50 billion) during the week, equivalent to an average of VND18.29 trillion ($700 million) per trading session, up 4.35 percent from the previous week.

Remaining in consolidation phase

Despite the recent rebound, the benchmark of the Ho Chi Minh City bourse has yet to establish a clear upward trend, according to market analysts.

Nguyen Tuan Anh, chairman of FinPeace Group JSC, said the index remains within a broad trading range, with the latest gains representing a normal recovery after testing key support levels.

While the rally could extend following short-term pullbacks, current market conditions are not yet sufficient to confirm the start of a major uptrend.

"The market may continue to edge higher after brief corrections. However, the current move could still represent a consolidation phase or a rebound from recent lows, rather than the start of a sustained bull run," Tuan Anh assessed.

On the macroeconomic front, a range of government support measures continues to underpin investor sentiment.

Several tax and fee relief policies have been extended through the end of 2026, while the State Bank of Vietnam has announced a VND220 trillion ($8.4 billion) credit package aimed at supporting small and medium-sized enterprises.

Tuan Anh described these measures as positive signals for the market but said policy support alone would not be enough to drive a prolonged rally.

Whether the market can enter a new growth cycle will ultimately depend on investor participation, trading activity and the strength of capital flows, he added.

Broader buying emerges, but resistance looms

Securities firms have largely maintained a cautious stance as the VN-Index approaches the 1,770-1,790 resistance zone, despite signs of improving market breadth and broader participation.

According to ACBS Securities, the proportion of stocks trading above their 20-day moving average rose to 51 percent, suggesting that the recent recovery has become more widespread across the market.

Telecommunications and chemical stocks continued to show strong momentum, while financial services and real estate also posted positive gains.

The brokerage noted that buying interest has expanded beyond a small group of market leaders, with oil and gas, banking and aviation stocks attracting notable inflows. The trend indicates that capital is gradually spreading across sectors rather than concentrating in a handful of large-cap names.

However, ACBS cautioned that trading value in most sessions remained below the monthly average, indicating that investor conviction has yet to fully recover.

The firm expects the VN-Index to continue fluctuating around the 1,770-point level as the market tests the balance between supply and demand.

A sustained break above the 1,770-1,780 range could open the door for a move toward 1,800 points, with 1,850 points emerging as the next potential target.

Yuanta Securities also expects the benchmark index to remain in a consolidation phase below the 1,780-1,790 range in the near term. The brokerage maintained a neutral short-term outlook and advised investors to closely monitor the 1,756-1,760 support zone.

Meanwhile, OCBS Securities said capital flows have been rotating among sectors, particularly banking, brokerage firms and state-linked enterprises.

Investor sentiment toward several state-controlled companies, including GAS, PLX, BSR, CTG, BID and VNM, has been supported by developments related to the restructuring of state capital holdings.

OCBS said the VN-Index has gradually recovered from its recent correction and reclaimed its 50-week moving average, a technical indicator often viewed as a sign of improving momentum.

Nevertheless, the brokerage warned that the 1,780-1,800 range could become a key test for the market, as profit-taking pressure may intensify once the index approaches this area.

VNDirect Securities expects the VN-Index to trade between 1,720 and 1,800 points during August as it establishes a new consolidation base. A decisive breakout above 1,780 points could pave the way for a further advance toward 1,850 points, the firm said.