The stock market is currently witnessing highly unpredictable developments, as the VN-Index remains under constant correction pressure. Liquidity has surged every time the index approaches its recent peak of around 1,300 points.

Profit-taking before resistance After a significant recovery in the first week of July, with the VN-Index rising from 1,240 to above 1,280 points, the index fluctuated within a narrow range during the second week. Although it briefly neared 1,300 points again, profit-taking pressure has consistently built up as the VN-Index challenges this resistance level, which has been strong in the past two years. Large investors and internal shareholders will choose to take profits at high prices when the VN-Index approaches this resistance area. Since early July, there has been a trend of major shareholders and internal shareholders selling off their shares. For instance, at Thanh Cong Textile Garment Investment Trading Joint Stock Company (HOSE: TCM), where the stock price has rose to a two-year high, board member Nguyen Tuan Nghia has registered to sell seven million TCM shares between July 16 and August 14. This sale aims to reduce his ownership from 17.19 million to 10.19 million shares, or from more than 16.8% to 10%. Nghia is a significant investor in several other companies, holding 9.78 million LCG shares (5.1%), nearly 10.4 million AMS shares (17.3%), and more than 22.4 million TIG shares (12.55%). At Tu Liem Urban Development Joint Stock Company (HOSE: NTL), the stock price has skyrocketed by 180% over the past six months to its highest price ever. Nguyen Thi Mai, the mother of General Director Dinh Duc Tiep, has registered to sell one million NTL shares between July 17 and August 15. Previously, Nguyen Van Kha, the father of Nguyen Hong Khiem (a member of the board of directors and deputy general director), intended to sell one million shares from May 30 to June 29. However, he sold only 678,100 shares, stating the prices did not meet his expectations. Meanwhile, at Hanoi South Housing and Urban Development Investment Corporation (HOSE: NHA), the stock price has surged by nearly 80% year-to-date to its highest level in two years. Nguyen Van Hung, a member of the board of directors, plans to sell one million shares between July 18 and August 15, which will reduce his ownership from 3.18% to 0.81%. Vice Chairman To Nhu Thang of Van Phu - Invest Investment Joint Stock Company (HOSE: VPI), whose stock price is now at an all-time high, sold 3.3 million VPI shares as registered during the period from June 27 to July 4. As a result, his ownership in the company has decreased from 4.38% to just over 3%. This sale occurred right before the payment of 2023 dividends in the form of additional shares. Similarly, three individuals related to the chairman of the board of directors of Thai Nguyen International Hospital Joint Stock Company (HOSE: TNH) have registered to offload nearly 4.3 million shares in total between July 15 and August 13, as the stock price is currently at its highest in two years. Additionally, principal shareholders, internal shareholders, and related parties are pursuing divestments across various enterprises. These include Ben Thanh Tourist Service Corporation (UPCoM: BTV), Tuan Loc Construction Investment Corporation (UPCoM: SZG), Thong Nhat Rubber Joint Stock Company (HOSE: TNC), Thanh Hoa Medical Materials Pharmaceutical Joint Stock Company (UPCoM: DTH), Construction Joint Stock Company No. 5 (HOSE: SC5), and Song Da No. 11 Joint Stock Company (HNX: SJE), among others. Fear of unpredictable volatility The stock market is currently experiencing highly unpredictable developments, as the VN-Index remains volatile and constantly under correction pressure. Every time it rises toward the recent peak of around 1,300 points, liquidity surges, but the market struggles to break through this resistance area despite the peak season for semi-annual financial statements. Adding to market uncertainties, the failed Donald Trump assassination attempt has heightened risks in global financial markets. During Trump's previous U.S. presidency, the U.S. stock market experienced positive growth due to his policies that supported the market and economy. These included tax cuts for businesses, advocating for interest rates cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), and depreciating the dollar to boost American companies' competitiveness. If Trump were to return to office next year, the trade war with China initiated six years ago would likely intensify. This scenario could create an opportunity for China’s neighboring economies to attract substantial capital flows diverted from China. The upward momentum of the VN-Index is also being restrained by persistent pressure from the exchange rate between the U.S. dollar and the Vietnamese dong, along with domestic interest rates. Despite an abundant supply of foreign currencies from trade and foreign investment, the greenback has become firmer than the dong. Meanwhile, signs of significant credit growth have led more banks to increase their deposit rates since early July. In another development, the possibility of the Fed easing its policy is becoming more likely, as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has unexpectedly altered his stance on interest rates. In a recent testimony before U.S. Congress, Powell stated that the Fed would not wait for inflation to fall below the 2% target before starting to cut interest rates. “If you waited that long, you probably waited too long because inflation will be moving downward and will go well below 2%, which we don’t want,” he explained. Inflation, measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, decreased from 4% a year ago to 2.6% in May, still above the Fed's 2% target. Data from the U.S. Department of Labor revealed that inflation cooled more than expected, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June dropping by 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, marking the first decline since May 2020. Year-on-year, the U.S. CPI increased by 3%, the lowest in over three years, below the forecast of 3.1% and down from 3.3% in May.