Companies listed on Vietnam's stock exchange have released their financial statements and shareholder meeting documents for the first quarter of 2026. A key highlight emerging from these reports is the mounting pressure from input costs, which is increasingly weighing on business performance. Not only are the prices of essential raw materials—such as gasoline, coal, ore, and agricultural products—experiencing sharp fluctuations, but import costs have also surged, driven by unfavorable exchange rate movements.

To evaluate this impact, we can examine three key cost pillars. First, energy products (gasoline and natural gas): In the global market, Brent crude oil prices fluctuated between US$80 and US$90 per barrel during the first four months of 2026, occasionally spiking above US$100. Persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, coupled with OPEC+ production curbs, have kept energy prices elevated. Domestically, retail gasoline and industrial gas prices have been continuously adjusted in line with international movements, amplifying cost pressures on businesses. Secondly, concerning the costs of transportation (logistics), the repercussions of the Middle East tensions, which have been dragging on since late 2024, have kept global shipping rates, especially on routes to Europe and North America, at a very high level, making import and export companies experience a dramatic upturn in their costs as well. Thirdly, with respect to the exchange rate, the appreciation of the U.S. dollar against the Vietnamese dong over the past year has directly increased the cost of goods sold for companies that must import raw materials (chemicals, plastics, animal feeds, or electronic components). Even if global raw material prices remain stable, the business community still has to bear higher costs when converted into dong. Overall, the impact of rising input costs varies across sectors. How well they pass on costs to end consumers will determine which businesses survive. In the transportation and aviation sector, the direct pressure from fuel prices is quite apparent, as fuels typically account for 30-40% of the total operating costs airlines and transport companies must meet. In the first quarter of this year, air carriers such as Vietnam Airlines (HVN) and Vietjet Air (VJC) saw a recovery in domestic and international passenger traffic, leading to impressive revenue growth. However, the exorbitant price of the aviation fuel Jet A-1, coupled with the rising exchange rate between the U.S. dollar and the dong (aircraft leases are paid in the greenback), prevented these firms from expanding their profit margins despite higher revenue. To be specific, HVN's gross profit margin reached 19.8% in the first quarter of 2026, a slight decline from the same period last year, while VJC's profit margin remained almost unchanged at around 13%. On the contrary, shipping companies like HAH and PVT, thanks to contributions from their new fleets and high (outgoing) sea freight rates, achieved spectacular profit growth in the first three months of the year, up 29% and 48% year-on-year, respectively. In the group of construction materials (steel and cement), the profit margin problem becomes more complex due to input materials such as iron ore, coke, scrap metal, clinker, and electricity. Iron ore prices on the world market fluctuated unpredictably in the first quarter of 2026 due to a slow recovery in demand from the Chinese real estate market. Meanwhile, the cost of domestically produced energy (electricity and coal) remained high. As a result, leading steelmakers like Hoa Phat (HPG), with greater scale, a closed-loop supply chain (the blast furnace-basic oxygen furnace or BF-BOF), and strong corporate governance, managed to maintain gross profit margins around 16%. However, those using electric arc furnace (EAF) technology are dependent on scrap steel imports, and the price of electricity they have to pay is under greater pressure. Meanwhile, in the cement industry (HT1 and BCC), despite improvements in their Q1 business results, the surge in coal, clinker, and transportation costs since the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East is expected to pose significant challenges for industry players in the coming quarters. The group of construction plastics is characterized by the fact that the price of (input) PVC resin is closely linked to oil prices. However, in early 2026, resin supply from Asia was abundant. Leading companies took advantage of this situation to build up their inventories at a low cost. Thanks to their dominant position, these enterprises were able to keep their output prices stable, helping Binh Minh Plastic (BMP) and Tien Phong Plastic (NTP) maintain record-high gross profit margins in the first quarter of this year (30-45%). In the consumer goods sector, food and beverage companies like Vinamilk (VNM), Masan (MSN), and Sabeco (SAB) are facing a relatively multifaceted impact. Although input factors such as sugar prices, packaging costs, and domestic and international logistics costs have all gone up, these businesses are under pressure to keep their selling prices unchanged to stimulate consumer demand at home, which is in a recovery phase. As a result, they have to sacrifice a portion of their gross profit margins and drastically cut selling expenses and advertising costs to avoid a profound impact on their net profits. All in all, the escalation in raw material prices is a major challenge for most businesses in the economy. That said, rising input costs do not necessarily mean bad news for the corporate circle. Those with control over their domestic raw material sources will have an advantage, as will those with powerful brands and substantial market shares (in the plastics, steel, and transport sectors), which allow them to pass on the increase in input costs to their selling prices to end consumers. This will also be true for enterprises adept at financial risk management through foreign exchange hedging (forex risk insurance), with forward contracts for raw material purchases at low prices already secured. It seems the surge in input costs is serving as a "filter," eliminating inefficient business models and highlighting companies with excellent cost management.