“The high target for HCMC’s digital economy is a necessary lighthouse that guides all efforts. The path ahead requires a comprehensive strategy: accurate measurement, a strong ‘conductor,’ and breakthrough policies,” said Dr. Tran Quy, director of the Vietnam Institute for Digital Economy Development and chairman of the digital asset platform company MetaDAP, in an interview with The Saigon Times.

A necessary ‘lighthouse’ The Saigon Times: In the draft Political Report of the 1st Congress of the Ho Chi Minh City Party Committee, for the 2025–2030 term, the city sets the goal of the digital economy accounting for 30% of GRDP in this period. How do you evaluate this target? Based on current figures, for example, the digital economy accounting for 25% of the city’s GRDP (before the merger), what growth rate must the city’s digital economy (after the merger) achieve to meet the overall goal? Dr. Tran Quy: The target of having the digital economy accounting for 30% of GRDP by 2030 in the “new megacity” of Ho Chi Minh City (including Ho Chi Minh City, Binh Duong, and Ba Ria–Vung Tau) is very ambitious but not unattainable. I believe this is a necessary goal that reflects the city leadership’s strategic vision. It is not just a number, but a core growth pillar to realize greater aspirations, such as achieving overall GRDP growth of 10–11% per year and per capita GRDP of US$14,000–15,000. However, to properly assess the challenge, we need to face two key issues. First, the inconsistency in current statistical data. At present, there are two main sets of data regarding the share of the digital economy in Ho Chi Minh City’s GRDP (before the merger). According to the General Statistics Office (now the National Statistics Office), the figure was only 14.65% in 2023. Meanwhile, estimates from the Ministry of Information and Communications (now the Ministry of Science and Technology) put the figure at 21.5% in 2023 and projected it would reach 25% in 2025. This discrepancy creates a “big gap” for policymaking. If we base our strategy on the optimistic 25% figure, we risk falling short when official indicators do not reflect corresponding results. Second, the challenge of the required growth rate. To achieve the 30% target, HCMC’s digital economy must grow at an extraordinary pace. Based on existing data and the city’s overall GRDP growth target of 10% per year, I have conducted a model. The results show that to grow from about VND626 trillion in 2025 to more than VND1,400 trillion in 2030, the city would need to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.5%. This 17.5% rate is nearly double the national digital economy growth rate in 2024 (estimated at 9.2%) and far higher than the city’s overall GRDP growth target. This highlights the extraordinary effort required. The growth must not only offset the “dilution effect” of merging economies with lower digital economy shares, such as Binh Duong and Ba Ria–Vung Tau, but also outpace the very rapid growth of traditional industries that are the strengths of these two localities. In short, the 30% GRDP target is a necessary lighthouse, guiding all efforts. But the road to achieving it is full of challenges, requiring breakthrough solutions and very strong political will. Some experts suggest that there needs to be a unified definition of the digital economy and a consistent method of calculating its contribution to GRDP for HCMC in particular and across the country in general. What is your view? How should we measure the contribution of the digital economy to local GRDP in a way that suits Vietnam’s conditions? I fully agree that establishing a unified definition and a common measurement methodology is an urgent requirement and the foundation for any effective policy. The absence of a common standard is not only an issue for Vietnam but also for the world. Even in HCMC, the coexistence of two conflicting sets of data is the clearest evidence. Without unification, we will be like “the blind men feeling an elephant,” with each locality and ministry having its own interpretation and approach, making it difficult to assess, compare, and allocate government resources. At present, the National Statistics Office is applying a methodology that divides the digital economy into two parts: the core digital economy (ICT industries) and the sectoral digital economy (value added from digital technology applications in other industries). This is an important step forward. However, this approach may not fully capture the unique strengths of HCMC. The National Statistics Office’s definition of “core digital economy” focuses heavily on hardware production and telecommunications—areas that are strengths of northern industrial provinces. Meanwhile, the real growth drivers of HCMC lie in digital services such as e-commerce, FinTech, and digital content—areas classified as part of the “sectoral digital economy,” which are much harder to measure and disaggregate. If policies focus only on improving the “core” index, we risk misdirecting investment. Therefore, I propose a two-step roadmap: In the short term: We need nationwide consensus to use the National Statistics Office’s methodology as the sole official standard to ensure consistency. At the same time, National Statistics Office’s capacity must be strengthened to collect more detailed data, especially on the “sectoral digital economy.” In the medium and long term: HCMC, in its leading role, should pioneer research and pilot the development of a Digital Economy Satellite Account in line with the OECD framework. This multidimensional approach looks not only at production sectors but also analyzes the nature of transactions (whether they are online or not), the type of product (digital or not), and emerging digital industries (such as intermediary platforms). Developing this satellite account will provide a detailed picture, enabling policymakers to clearly see the value flows of the digital economy, make evidence-based decisions, allocate resources efficiently, and attract investment transparently. The “digital triangle” and HCMC’s role as conductor In your view, what are the main drivers for the growth and contribution of the digital economy to the city’s GRDP after the merger? How will the “old” HCMC play the role of locomotive, driving and connecting growth for the new HCMC, which includes Binh Duong and Ba Ria–Vung Tau? The growth momentum of HCMC’s digital economy comes from three main groups of factors that together form a synergistic ecosystem. First, the city’s core digital industries: HCMC is the most dynamic hub for fields such as e-commerce, FinTech, digital content industries, and smart logistics. In particular, the city is making a strategic shift toward higher value-added areas such as artificial intelligence (AI) and the semiconductor industry—moving from “extensive” to “intensive” growth. Second, the digital transformation of enterprises: Growth momentum comes not only from tech companies but also from the transformation of tens of thousands of traditional businesses, especially small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Helping SMEs apply digital technology to optimize operations and expand markets is the key for the digital economy to spread and penetrate into every corner of the economy. Third, strong foundational factors: These include increasingly modern digital and logistics infrastructure, a large pool of high-quality human resources, and most importantly, a vibrant innovation ecosystem with high-tech zones, universities, research institutes, and venture capital funds. In the new metropolitan region, HCMC’s role is not simply that of a “locomotive” pulling the whole train forward, but also that of a “conductor” orchestrating the harmonious development of the entire symphony. We can envision a model of labor division based on the comparative advantages of each locality. - HCMC as the “brain”: A center of finance, commerce, research and development (R&D), innovation, and high-quality human resources. This is where ideas, technologies, and capital originate. - Binh Duong as the “factory”: Leveraging its strength in industrial production and industrial park infrastructure, Binh Duong will host smart factories, automation, and large-scale e-logistics hubs. - Ba Ria – Vung Tau as the “gateway”: With the Cai Mep – Thi Vai deep-water port system, this province will become the region’s hub for smart logistics, marine economy, and digital tourism. This “digital triangle” linkage model will create a complete value chain, enabling the entire region to maximize synergies, avoid intra-regional competition, and collectively expand into regional and global markets. Breaking away from the beaten track To achieve the goal of HCMC’s digital economy accounting for 30% of GRDP in 2030, what institutional or policy adjustments and breakthroughs do you think the city needs? - To achieve this ambitious goal, HCMC cannot simply follow old paths but must pursue real breakthroughs in mechanisms and policies. Fortunately, we already have a powerful tool in hand: Resolution 98/2023/QH15. Resolution 98 has given the city unprecedented “levers,” especially for the digital economy. These include tax exemptions for corporate and personal income from innovative startups; flexible mechanisms for commissioning scientific research, including allowing the state budget to contribute to venture capital funds; and, most importantly, the controlled sandbox mechanism. This serves as a “license” for the city to pilot new business and technology models not yet covered by law, such as fintech, autonomous vehicles, and delivery drones. However, the biggest challenge lies in execution capacity. To effectively carry out Resolution 98, the city must: - Translate into action quickly: Issue clear, simple guidance documents so businesses can easily access the incentives. - Proactively launch sandboxes: Instead of waiting, the city should identify priority sectors to open sandboxes, creating a safe environment for breakthrough ideas to be tested and scaled. Beyond leveraging Resolution 98, we must also learn from international experiences and introduce systematic, interregional policies. I propose three breakthrough initiatives: - First, open and shared data policy: HCMC should learn from South Korea’s “Data Dam” model to lead in building a shared data portal. Standardized and API-accessible data on transportation, planning, logistics, tourism, and more would be an invaluable resource for businesses to create new digital services. - Second, digital transformation vouchers for SMEs: Similar to Singapore’s support programs, we could issue financial vouchers enabling SMEs to purchase or use digital solutions from trusted providers. This would stimulate demand in the digital services market and drive substantive digital transformation at scale. - Third, Regional Digital Economy Council: This must be a truly empowered interprovincial coordinating body, responsible for developing and monitoring a common strategy, addressing cross-regional issues such as digital infrastructure planning, harmonizing policies, and preventing fragmented approaches. In short, the road ahead requires a comprehensive strategy: precise measurement, effective orchestration, and bold policymaking. I believe that with its potential, resources, and an open, creative policy mindset, the new mega-metropolis of HCMC can fully realize its aspiration to become a leading digital economy hub in the region. Reported by Hoang Hanh