The VN-Index’s numeric score is just one factor in making investment decisions. Selecting the right industry group that stands to benefit from macroeconomic fluctuations is a far more critical step than merely predicting the index.

The index drivers Analysts forecast that the VN-Index could reach 1,400 points in 2025, marking an 11.1% increase from its December 31 level of 1,266 points—a target that seems achievable. Optimistic investors even hope the VN-Index might climb back to the 1,500-point milestone, buoyed by a long-term market uptrend and the anticipated stock market upgrade. However, the VN-Index’s numeric score is just one piece of the puzzle. In a bullish market, performance can vary significantly across industry groups. While some sectors may experience exceptional growth, others might stagnate or even decline. As such, identifying the right industry group poised to benefit from macroeconomic trends remains a prerequisite—and a more crucial factor—than simply predicting the index. The securities sector is widely regarded as the biggest beneficiary if Vietnam’s stock market upgrade takes place in 2025. Market observers anticipate this upgrade could occur during FTSE’s semi-annual index review in September. Several developments are expected to drive growth in the securities sector, including the launch of the KRX trading system scheduled for this year and the introduction of new products like VN100 Index futures contracts in the first quarter of 2025. Additionally, new indicators and platforms to support small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and innovative startups are likely to stimulate positive growth in the securities group’s business activities. Securities companies have made significant strides by implementing online account opening and authentication services, reviewing securities account data, and connecting to the national population database. These advancements have enhanced operational efficiency and security while attracting new investors. Additionally, as a sector with substantial demand for loans to fund margin lending activities—especially foreign currency loans from international financial institutions—securities companies are likely to benefit from the downward trend in U.S. dollar interest rates, boosting profitability. The banking sector, which accounts for the largest share of the VN-Index capitalization, is expected to maintain its profit growth in 2025. Despite challenges posed by rising capital costs and an upward trend in deposit interest rates, the sector is poised to expand as credit demand strengthens. Furthermore, a continued expansionary monetary policy aimed at supporting economic growth and a recovering retail lending segment will provide additional momentum for the banking system. The real estate sector is also showing signs of recovery after prolonged stagnation. Lower lending interest rates, now at their lowest levels in years, are providing strong support for property prices. In addition, several real estate projects are beginning to resolve their legal issues, aided by the amended Law on Real Estate Business and the Law on Construction, both of which took effect in early 2025. These developments are expected to have a positive impact on the real estate sector, driving growth throughout the year. Benefiting from macro-economic trends and new opportunities Industrial real estate stands to benefit significantly from ongoing trends, particularly the inflow of foreign capital. The increasing number of multinational technology corporations relocating their production chains to Vietnam is driving demand for industrial spaces. Additionally, investment in key transport infrastructure projects is progressing steadily, contributing to higher rental prices for industrial parks and boosting the value of nearby residential real estate projects. With an ambitious growth target of 8% for 2025, the Government plans to expand fiscal policy by accelerating the disbursement of public investment funds. This strategy aims to spread growth momentum and strengthen Vietnam’s competitiveness in attracting foreign investment. Major infrastructure projects will take center stage this year, including the completion of the North-South Expressway, Long Thanh International Airport, and the initiation of the North-South express railway project. These developments, combined with the recovery in the real estate market, are expected to provide a much-needed boost to the construction and building materials industry, helping it rebound from recent lows. Electricity stocks are an attractive consideration for 2025, as power consumption demand is expected to rise sharply. This growth is driven by increasing investments from public, private, and foreign sectors. Furthermore, adjustments to the National Power Development Plan VIII and the Electricity Law are fostering a more competitive power generation market, prioritizing the development of renewable energy to ensure a stable power supply from 2026 to 2030. These developments provide significant growth opportunities for industry players in the years ahead. At the same time, trade activities may face challenges this year due to potential tariff barriers affecting Vietnam’s exports. In response, the Government is working to shift growth momentum toward domestic consumption. This, coupled with a more optimistic economic outlook, is expected to restore consumer confidence, positioning the retail sector for a robust recovery in 2025. As exporters tackle challenges and global supply chains undergo further restructuring, enterprises from China are increasingly likely to relocate production facilities to Vietnam. This shift aims to circumvent high U.S. tariffs or take advantage of Vietnam as a strategic transit point. Vietnam’s growing integration into global supply chains, supported by multiple free trade agreements signed in recent years, positions seaport, shipping, and logistics companies as key beneficiaries. These sectors stand to gain particularly as freight rates remain elevated due to ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Digital transformation is also gaining significant traction, both in state agencies aiming to streamline their operations and in the private sector focused on enhancing labor productivity. Information technology stocks are poised to benefit from the ongoing transition to a 5G network in Vietnam, alongside the Government’s emphasis on fostering the semiconductor industry and attracting foreign investment from leading technology corporations. Vietnam’s improving position in the global value chain, coupled with the application of artificial intelligence, advancements in cloud computing, and supportive government policies, further highlights the potential for this industry.