As liquidity continues to tighten, banks are prioritizing capital mobilization to meet peak lending demand in the final months of the year. This is expected to be the key factor driving upward pressure on interest rates.

Interest rates rise despite injections by the central bank The overnight lending rate between credit institutions on the interbank market reached 6% on the first day of last week (October 27, 2025), up 1.6 percentage points compared with late September. One-week and two-week rates also climbed above 6%, nearly 0.6 percentage point higher over the same period. In the past week alone, the overnight rate surged by nearly one percentage point. Since early October, interest rates in the interbank market have continued to trend up as system liquidity has tightened, even though the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) has continuously injected net liquidity through open-market operations (OMO) since mid-October. Specifically, from October 15 through October 24, the central bank injected a net VND96,773 billion via OMO, including VND46,000 billion on October 22. In the retail market, banks have also increased deposit rates since the beginning of the month, focusing on short tenors of 1–3 months, with increases of 0.2–0.3 percentage point compared with late September. For example, BacA Bank raised its one-month rate by 0.2 percentage point to 4% per year and its 3-month rate by 0.25 percentage point to 4.55% per year. NCB increased its 6-month rate by 0.2 percentage point to 5.15% per year. Notably, deposit rates for tenors below six months at some banks are approaching the 4.75% per year ceiling, reflecting intensifying competition for capital toward year-end. However, the Big 4 banks and major institutions such as Techcombank, MBBank, and ACB continue to offer short-term rates of around 2.3–3.2% per year, widening the gap between bank groups. The difference is even more pronounced for tenors of 6 months or more. The spread between the highest and lowest six-month savings rates has reached 2.7 percentage points, and nearly 2.6 percentage points for nine-month tenors. The reason is that tenors of 6 months or longer are not subject to deposit rate caps, allowing banks to post higher rates to attract funds. Banks are also actively shifting deposits from traditional over-the-counter transactions to digital channels through promotional programs and higher online savings rates, with online premiums of 0.1–0.7 percentage point per year depending on the tenor. Where is the pressure coming from? Contrary to earlier expectations, inflation has not yet emerged as a key risk pressuring deposit rates, despite impacts from trade conflicts and tariff barriers affecting global supply chains. According to data from the National Statistics Office (NSO), the consumer price index (CPI) in September 2025 rose 2.61% from December 2024 and 3.38% year-on-year. On average, in the first nine months of 2025, CPI rose 3.27% year-on-year, and core inflation increased 3.19%. Meanwhile, the USD/VND exchange rate has been one factor influencing interest rate movements. After rising 3.6% in the first nine months of the year, the USD/VND rate has stabilized as the U.S. dollar cooled internationally. However, in recent days, although the official USD/VND rate has remained stable, the dollar price on the informal market has fluctuated sharply, approaching VND28,000 per USD — more than VND1,000 above the formal market. Earlier, on October 22, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) also announced a plan to sell foreign currency through 180-day revocable forward contracts – the third time in nearly two months that the SBV has used this currency-selling intervention tool. The transactions were conducted with credit institutions that had a short foreign-currency position, at a selling rate of VND26,550 per U.S. dollar. The maximum amount of foreign currency sold to each bank in each transaction was capped at the level required to bring that bank’s foreign-currency position back to balance. The widening gap between the formal and informal U.S. dollar exchange rates likely stems from the continuous rise in domestic gold prices and the expanding price difference, which has fueled demand for dollars to smuggle gold into the country. In addition, rising gold prices have affected market sentiment and increased the demand to hold on to more U.S. dollars. As a result, when the value of safe-haven assets such as gold or foreign currency rises significantly, depositors tend to demand higher deposit rates to compensate for opportunity costs. On the banking side, liquidity has gradually tightened in recent months, and banks are also focusing on mobilizing capital to meet peak lending demand in the final months of the year. This is likely the most significant factor that may put upward pressure on interest rates in the near term. Data from the NSO shows that as of September 25, deposit growth at credit institutions rose 9.74% compared to the beginning of the year, while credit growth reached 13%. In absolute terms, the gap between credit growth and capital mobilization amounted to more than VND444 trillion. According to the SBV, credit growth by the end of September had reached 13.37%. With the Government targeting economic growth of 8.3%–8.5% in 2025, analysts forecast that credit growth this year could surpass 20%, the highest level in 15 years. This expectation is not without basis: historically, borrowing demand surges in the fourth quarter, even during years when the economy was subdued by Covid-19. Stronger credit expansion requires banks to step up mobilizing deposits — especially as the corporate bond market may slow down, after the Government Inspectorate recently uncovered a series of violations in corporate bond issuance activities, including cases involving some banks. A recent report by KB Securities Vietnam (KBSV) also noted that several banks recorded credit growth above 20% in the first nine months of the year, which may add pressure to deposit rates. According to KBSV, with system liquidity no longer abundant due to credit growth far outpacing deposit growth, coupled with persistent exchange-rate pressures at times, deposit interest rates are expected to edge up slightly, particularly as credit demand is projected to accelerate in the fourth quarter.