HCMC – The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) raised its forecasts for Vietnam’s economic growth to 6.5% in 2026 and 6.2% in 2027, while warning that higher energy prices and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could pose risks to growth and inflation.

The revised projections are up from 6.2% and 5.8%, respectively, in the OECD's Economic Outlook published at the end of 2025. The OECD said the economy has remained resilient despite global uncertainty. After expanding 8% in 2025, gross domestic product grew 7.8% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, supported by steady domestic consumption, stronger public investment, and continued export growth. Private consumption is expected to remain a key driver of growth, backed by rising wages and a stable labor market. The unemployment rate stood at 2.2%. Infrastructure projects under the country's new five-year development plan are expected to support investment growth in the coming years. Exports continue to benefit from demand for technology and semiconductor-related products, while tourism has recovered. Foreign direct investment inflows have also continued to rise, strengthening the economic outlook. The OECD noted that the economy remains vulnerable to external shocks because it is a net energy importer. More than 80% of oil imports come from the Middle East, leaving it exposed to potential supply disruptions if regional conflicts persist or escalate. Price pressures have increased in recent months. Headline inflation reached 5.5% in April 2026, while core inflation was 4.7%. Fuel and transportation prices rose 11.1% from a year earlier. According to the OECD, higher energy costs and a planned increase in value-added tax from early 2027 could curb consumption in the short term and keep inflation elevated. The organization expects fiscal policy to remain expansionary through higher public investment. The budget deficit is projected to widen to about 4.8% of GDP this year. It also noted that fiscal space remains available, with public debt at 31.5% of GDP in 2025, well below the country's 60% ceiling. Despite the upgrade, the OECD's outlook remains more conservative than forecasts from several other international institutions. The World Bank projected growth of 6.8% for 2026 in an economic update released in mid-May. Earlier forecasts from the Asian Development Bank and UOB put growth at 7.2% and 7.5%, respectively. All three organizations have said growth prospects will depend on the ability to withstand external shocks, maintain macroeconomic stability, and continue reforms to improve long-term productivity.