Capital mobilization has been rising at a slower pace than outstanding loans — a trend seen across many banks since the beginning of the year

Drivers of credit expansion According to the Q3 2025 financial statements, customer deposits at 27 listed banks increased by only 10.2% compared with the start of 2025. Meanwhile, 21 out of 27 banks reported loan growth outpacing the growth of customer deposits. Total outstanding loans at the 27 listed banks reached nearly VND13.63 quadrillion as of September 30, 2025, up 15% from the start of the year and accounting for 77% of the sector’s total outstanding credit. This is the strongest credit expansion seen in years for both the banking system as a whole and for many individual banks. Thirteen banks recorded loan growth of at least 15% in the first nine months of the year. The five fastest-growing lenders were NCB with an increase of 33.4%, followed by VPBank at 29.4%, Techcombank at 21.4%, MBBank at 19.9%, and TPBank at 18.3%. SaigonBank was the only bank to report a decline, with outstanding loans falling 6.1%. In raw terms, the largest banks still dominated the banking landscape. VietinBank’s loan book expanded by VND286.6 trillion to VND1.99 quadrillion; VPBank’s increased by VND203.5 trillion to VND896.4 trillion; BIDV added more than VND181 trillion to reach almost VND2.24 quadrillion; Vietcombank grew by VND180.7 trillion to nearly VND1.63 quadrillion; and MBBank increased by VND154.8 trillion to VND931.5 trillion. Both VPBank and MBBank, therefore, ranked among the top lenders in terms of both absolute and relative loan growth. Multiple factors have fueled this rapid expansion in lending. The first is the renewed vigor of the broader economy. GDP grew 7.85% in the first nine months of 2025, second only to the 9.44% pace seen over the same period in 2022 during the 2011–2025 window. With fourth-quarter growth needing to exceed 8.4% to meet the full-year target and the Government aiming for double-digit expansion from 2026 onward, businesses have grown increasingly optimistic and are borrowing more aggressively to expand production and investment. A second driver comes from the strengthening real estate market, which has spurred demand for home loans and property investment. According to the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV), outstanding real estate credit reached more than VND4 quadrillion as of August 31, 2025, up 19% year-on-year and representing 23.68% of total outstanding credit—its highest share in recent history. Public-investment-driven infrastructure projects, along with the easing of legal hurdles for many developments, have also encouraged property developers to seek additional financing. Within total real estate credit, loans for real estate business activities jumped 24% to VND1.79 quadrillion, while loans for consumption or self-use rose only 12%. A third factor is the relatively favorable lending rate environment. Although deposit rates have come under pressure amid tight liquidity, banks have sought to maintain stable lending rates in line with policy guidance from the Government and the SBV. Many lenders have rolled out attractive promotional loan packages with low starting rates, helping stimulate borrowing demand across the economy. Mobilization cannot keep pace According to the National Statistics Office (NSO), as of September 25, 2025, deposit mobilization at credit institutions had increased by only 9.74% compared with the end of 2024. Although this figure is much higher than the same period last year (4.17%), it still lags far behind the economy’s credit growth of 13%. The SBV recently reported that by the end of October, credit growth for the entire sector had surged by 15%. Slower mobilization compared with loan growth has been a common pattern among many banks since the beginning of the year. Third-quarter 2025 financial statements from 27 listed banks show that customer deposits rose by only 10.2% from the start of the year. Among them, 21 banks recorded loan growth that outpaced deposit growth. Even when including the issuance of valuable papers, mobilization growth in the retail market for these 27 banks reached just 11.4%, still significantly lower than the 15% credit expansion. Eighteen banks reported loan growth higher than their total retail-market funding (including valuable papers), with eight of them posting a gap of more than 5 percentage points. The largest disparities were seen at TPBank with a 9.3-point gap, as loans grew 18.3% while mobilization rose 9%; ACB with a gap of 8.1%; NCB at 7.1%; Vietbank at 7%; and Vietcombank at 6.2%, as its loans increased 12.5% but deposits rose only 6.3%. Some banks, however, achieved mobilization growth that exceeded loan growth. ABBank recorded the strongest increase with deposits up 30.4%, surpassing loan growth by 21.5 points. Viet Capital Bank reported corresponding increases of 23.9% and 10.6 points; NamA Bank 23% and 4.9 points; and MSB 19.2% and 4.2 points. As a result, the loan-to-deposit ratio continued to rise across the banking system. Eighteen out of the 27 banks registered an increase in this ratio compared with the beginning of the year. Notably, six banks saw the ratio exceed 100%, meaning their outstanding loans are now larger than their borrowing base, including valuable papers. These banks are VPBank at 130%, VIB at 111%, SeABank at 110%, VietinBank at 102%, and Vietcombank and LPBank both at 100%. This imbalance has forced banks to increase their reliance on the interbank market, seek trade-finance sources, or obtain entrusted funds to compensate for the shortfall in business capital. This trend has also contributed to upward pressure on deposit interest rates in recent months as banks compete more aggressively for funding to support credit expansion. Looking ahead, credit growth is expected to continue expanding and may approach 20% this year. Meanwhile, seasonal patterns mean mobilization typically becomes more challenging toward year-end, prompting banks to compete even more intensely for deposits through interest rate adjustments and promotions. Banks may also continue strengthening their issuance of valuable papers to secure more stable long-term funding. According to the Vietnam Bond Market Association, banks have been the largest issuers of valuable papers since the beginning of the year. Third-quarter financial statements show that issuance by the 27 listed banks increased by VND278.5 trillion, or 21.7% compared with the beginning of the year, with seven banks reporting increases of more than 50%.