In recent years, the global labor market has undergone profound transformations driven by automation, artificial intelligence, and changes in production structures. In this context, Universal Basic Income (UBI) — a concept once regarded as “far-fetched” — has increasingly become part of policy debates as governments seek responses to employment challenges in the 21st century.

Transformation of the labor market The labor market is changing not only in the number of jobs but also, more significantly, in their quality and stability. According to an OECD analysis on the impact of artificial intelligence (AI), as many as 45.3 million jobs in the United States could be disrupted by automation by 2028, with sectors such as retail, finance, education, and services among the most heavily affected. This indicates that automation is no longer a concern confined to manufacturing but is extending across nearly all major sectors. At the same time, platform-based or gig work — characterized by freelance, short-term arrangements — has expanded rapidly. A World Bank report estimates that there are up to 435 million gig workers worldwide, representing a 41% increase from 2016 to early 2023. These jobs typically lack social insurance, benefits, and standard labor protections, leaving many workers vulnerable to market fluctuations. Meanwhile, automation requires the workforce to continuously upgrade skills, piling significant pressure on less-trained workers or those approaching the upper end of working age. This dynamic increases the risk of deepening polarization between high-skilled workers and those more easily replaced, exacerbating income inequality and long-term unemployment. In the traditional pyramid-shaped organizational model, a senior manager oversees a large workforce beneath him or her, especially at the lower tiers. Today, however, robots can perform most tasks at these lower levels. In other words, a large share of jobs will be automated, while employment demand will concentrate on a small group of highly skilled workers, leaving many without work. Consequently, the distribution of wealth must follow a different model, and universal income is increasingly viewed as a potential solution. What is UBI and why is it gaining attention? UBI is a policy that provides a regular, unconditional cash payment to all citizens, regardless of their employment status or income level. Its objectives are to ensure a minimum standard of living, reduce poverty, and offer a more resilient social safety net at a time when traditional employment no longer guarantees income stability. In the United States, the concept has attracted growing attention. One survey showed that public support for basic income programs rose from 12% to 48% over roughly a decade, indicating that many citizens are beginning to view UBI as a viable response to technology-driven employment challenges. Beyond the general public, technology leaders such as Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg have also expressed support for the idea that, in a future where robots and AI perform most human jobs, some form of “free distribution of money” may be necessary to maintain social stability. Empirical evidence on UBI Several UBI pilot programs worldwide have provided early empirical evidence of its impacts. In Finland, a trial conducted from 2017 to 2018 provided approximately €560 (about US$670) per month to 2,000 unemployed individuals with no conditions attached. The results showed improvements in recipients’ mental and emotional well-being, although employment rates did not differ significantly from those of the control group. In addition, the U.S. state of Alaska has implemented a form of UBI since 1982 by distributing annual “dividends” from oil revenues to all residents. This is often cited as a long-running model that has helped stabilize incomes without negatively affecting employment. Overall, studies suggest that in some UBI experiments, income stability allows workers greater flexibility in job searching, improves employability, and reduces financial stress, as better interview opportunities, transportation costs, and childcare expenses can be supported by basic income. Potential benefits and limitations of UBI UBI offers at least three potential benefits. First, it stabilizes income in an era of employment insecurity. As gig work expands and income becomes more volatile, UBI can provide a financial buffer, particularly for workers displaced by automation. Second, it encourages innovation and reskilling. With a guaranteed basic income, workers may invest more time in learning new skills and transitioning into more promising sectors in the future. Third, it helps reduce poverty and inequality. UBI aims to guarantee a minimum standard of living for all, which is especially important in aging societies or those with weak social welfare systems. However, UBI also has notable limitations. First, the fiscal cost is substantial. A common argument against UBI is that it would place a heavy burden on public budgets, requiring major tax reforms or new revenue sources. Second, its impact on work incentives remains debated. Some critics worry that unconditional income could reduce motivation to work for certain groups, although current empirical evidence is mixed and highly dependent on program design. Third, implementation is challenging. Differences in labor market structures and reliance on existing welfare systems create significant political and technical barriers to adopting UBI. UBI and Vietnam Although UBI has not been implemented in Vietnam, employment trends and the need for income stability raise important questions about the sustainability of the domestic labor market. Vietnam faces several challenges: a large informal sector with many workers experiencing unstable incomes or limited access to social protection; and increasing international labor competition and outward labor migration, reflecting income and job-quality disparities across labor markets. In this context, Vietnamese policymakers could consider adaptive solutions inspired by UBI, such as prioritizing social protection systems to safeguard vulnerable workers through unemployment benefits, reskilling programs, and universal health insurance; and promoting digital and soft skills development to enhance workers’ competitiveness in a labor market increasingly shaped by automation and technology. Conclusion Automation and structural changes in employment require countries to rethink the role of labor in their economies and how to ensure income security for all citizens. UBI — though still largely theoretical and experimental — has opened an important debate on equity, sustainability, and labor adaptation in the digital age. For Vietnam, the key question is not simply whether to adopt UBI, but how to build a flexible and robust social protection ecosystem capable of shielding workers from the profound disruptions of the modern labor market.