Strong El Nino raises risk of severe heatwaves across Vietnam

Dang Thanh Mai, deputy head of the administration, said the projected pattern closely resembles the strong El Nino episodes of 2015, 2016, and 2023.

This year’s El Nino may rank among the most intense events recorded since 1950.

“If this scenario materializes, Vietnam will likely experience higher-than-average temperatures, reduced cold-air activity, and below-normal rainfall,” Mai said.

“The central, Central Highlands, and southern regions are likely to face an increased risk of drought, water shortages, and saltwater intrusion from late 2026 into early 2027."

While El Nino conditions are often associated with fewer tropical storms and depressions affecting Vietnam, Mai cautioned that exceptionally powerful storms could still occur and cause significant damage.

Mai recalled that the 2015-16 El Nino brought extreme heatwaves that lasted more than 30 consecutive days, with temperatures ranging from 39 to 41 degrees celsius.

In Nghe An Province’s Con Cuong, temperatures reached as high as 42 degrees Celsius.

Mai Van Khiem, director of the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, said the number of hot days this year is expected to exceed the long-term average and levels recorded in 2025.

However, temperatures are unlikely to surpass the record-breaking heat observed in 2024.

He forecast that the probability of a very strong El Nino will increase compared with earlier forecasts, with a 60-65 percent chance of the phenomenon developing between late 2026 and early 2027.

Deputy Minister of Agriculture and Environment Dang Ngoc Diep said that the ministry had instructed the administration and related units to conduct comprehensive assessments of potential impacts and damages associated with the forecast climate conditions.

The assessments will serve as a basis for guiding policy and preparedness measures across sectors, including agriculture, hydropower generation, and disaster management.

Local authorities will also use the findings to develop timely response plans aimed at minimizing losses caused by El Nino.

El Nino is a climate phenomenon characterized by unusually warm ocean temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, often resulting in prolonged dry and hot weather conditions.

Meanwhile, La Nina is generally associated with cooler ocean temperatures and increased rainfall.

Although El Nino has existed for a long time, the phenomenon has become more frequent and their impacts increasingly severe in recent decades.

The term has been widely used by meteorologists and climate researchers for more than two decades.