UOB maintains 7.7% GDP growth forecast for Vietnam in 2025

The outlook follows Vietnam’s strong economic performance in the third quarter, when GDP expanded by 8.23 percent year on year, marking the highest quarterly growth since the post-COVID-19 recovery in the second quarter of 2022.

UOB said resilient export and manufacturing activity continue to underpin Vietnam’s growth momentum for the last quarter of this year, even as the country navigates challenges posed by U.S. tariff policies.

Exports to US surge

From January to October, Vietnam’s exports rose by 16.8 percent year on year, building on a 14.2-percent increase recorded in 2024.

Exports to the U.S. grew even faster, climbing by 28.1 percent during the period, up from 24.3 percent a year earlier.

Vietnam posted a trade surplus of US$18.7 billion in the first ten months of 2025, down from $22.4 billion in the same period of 2024, largely reflecting higher imports of raw materials to support export-oriented manufacturing.

Bloomberg columnist Daniel Moss said Vietnam has held its ground in global trade, with third-quarter GDP growth of 8.23 percent matching India’s pace and making it ‘the star performer in East Asia.’

Vietnam a bellwether for global commerce

Alongside strong trade performance, foreign direct investment into Vietnam has continued to draw solid interest, underscoring investor confidence in both the country and the wider ASEAN region despite volatility in U.S. trade policy.

Cumulative disbursed FDI in the January–October period reached $21.3 billion, exceeding both the full-year projection of $20 billion and the $19.6 billion recorded a year earlier.

Registered FDI in the period increased by 15 percent year on year to $31.5 billion.

Vietnam’s manufacturing sector also recorded broad-based growth, expanding by 10.8 percent in the first nine months of 2025, compared with 9.4 percent a year ago.

The outlook remains positive, with the purchasing managers’ index staying above the 50-point threshold for four consecutive months.

Taken together, these indicators across trade, manufacturing, and investment paint a bright picture of Vietnam’s economic performance, prompting UOB to uphold its forecast of 7.7 percent GDP growth for 2025.

Moss said Vietnam’s growth trajectory will serve as an important gauge of global trade health in the year ahead, noting that consumers worldwide rely on a wide range of products made in Vietnam, from sneakers to furniture and computers.

“To gauge the health of world commerce in 2026, look at how the Southeast Asian export powerhouse is traveling,” he wrote.

Tariff risks remain

Despite the upbeat outlook, UOB cautioned that tariff risks persist.

With U.S. duties on Vietnamese goods remaining at 20 percent, global trade could face renewed pressure in 2026, potentially raising costs for American consumers and producers.

The bank also noted that achieving Vietnam’s official growth target of 8.3–8.5 percent for 2025 will be challenging, as it would require the fourth-quarter growth of between 9.7 percent and 10.5 percent.

Looking ahead, UOB expects Vietnam’s economic growth to moderate to around seven percent in the first quarter of 2026, reflecting a high base set in 2025 and a fading boost from accelerated export orders.