US tariff response: Ministry outlines 3 scenarios for Vietnam’s agro-forestry-fishery sector

At a regular press conference on Thursday, Tran Gia Long, deputy director of the ministry’s Planning and Finance Department, announced three possible outlooks for the spearhead export sector.

If the U.S. applies a 10-percent reciprocal tariff on Vietnamese agricultural, forestry, and fishery goods, the sector's export turnover is expected to remain largely unaffected, sustaining growth at around four percent.

For a 20-percent tariff, exports in the second half could fall by 20 percent, equivalent to a loss of approximately US$6.2–6.5 billion, reducing growth by 0.15–0.2 percentage points to about 3.8-3.85 percent.

In a worst-case scenario, meaning a 46-percent tariff as initially announced by the U.S. administration on April 3, export value in the latter half of the year could drop by around $12.3 billion.

Tran Dinh Luan, director of the Directorate of Fisheries and Fisheries Surveillance, noted that seafood exports would be particularly vulnerable to reciprocal tariffs, especially key items such as shrimp, tra (pangasius) fish, and tuna.

However, since the exact tariff rate has not yet been finalized, the agency cannot predict specific impacts now.

According to the ministry, the export turnover of agricultural, forestry, and fishery products reached $33.84 billion in the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of more than 15 percent and a trade surplus of $9.83 billion.

The U.S. remained the largest export market, accounting for 21.1 percent of Vietnam’s exports, followed by China at 17.6 percent and Japan at 7.2 percent.

The three scenarios were proposed amid ongoing negotiations between Vietnam and the U.S., during which an agreement on the Vietnam–U.S. Joint Statement concerning a reciprocal, fair, and balanced trade agreement framework was reached on Thursday.

The agreement followed a phone conversation on Wednesday between Vietnamese Party General Secretary To Lam and U.S. President Donald Trump.

President Trump praised Vietnam’s commitment to granting greater market access for U.S. goods, including large-displacement vehicles, and confirmed that the U.S. would significantly reduce reciprocal tariffs on many Vietnamese exports.

Party chief Lam called on the U.S. to soon recognize Vietnam as a market economy and to lift export restrictions on certain high-tech goods.