USD/VND exchange rate likely to hit 26,400 in Q3: UOB

This forecast is included in the latest report by UOB’s Global Economics & Markets Research department.

UOB cautions that external headwinds—especially tariff concerns—will continue to exert downward pressure on the Vietnamese dong in the near term, although the domestic economy remains strong.

In the first half of 2025, the dong was the weakest currency in Asia, losing approximately 2.5 percent against the greenback.

By contrast, comparable regional currencies posted gains—about 12 percent for the Taiwanese dollar and 2.5 percent for the Chinese yuan.

Since late April, the dong has trailed its regional peers, lagging even as Asian currencies rebounded in Q2-2025.

In June, while most Asian currencies continued their recovery, the dong weakened further, touching a record low of VND26,203 to the dollar.

In this context, UOB anticipates the dong will remain near the weaker end of its trading band against the dollar through Q3. 

However, by Q4, the currency may begin to align with the broader recovery in Asian currencies as trade uncertainties ease.

Accordingly, the USD/VND rate is forecast to peak at VND26,400 in Q3 before gradually declining to VND26,200 in Q4, VND26,000 in Q1-2026, and VND25,800 in Q2-2026.

UOB also notes that the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) monetary policy in 2025 has struck a well-balanced stance by simultaneously pursuing exchange-rate stability, controlling inflation, and supporting economic growth.

The SBV’s choice to refrain from further interest-rate adjustments this year—a factor that can impact foreign exchange rates—is viewed by UOB as judicious, particularly in the face of rising external risks originating from the U.S. and global financial markets.

According to Hanoi-headquartered securities firm DNSE, the VND/USD exchange rate at many commercial banks has risen following Hanoi and Washington recently reaching the Joint Vietnam–U.S. Statement on a Fair, Balanced, and Reciprocal Trade Agreement Framework.

“This statement is considered by observers as a factor supporting market sentiment and creating expectations of new investment flows, contributing to pushing the USD/VND exchange rate up in the short term,” DNSE commented.

In addition to its updated foreign exchange outlook, UOB has revised its Vietnam GDP growth forecast for 2025 upward—from 6.0 percent to 6.9 percent—reflecting strong economic performance during the first half of the year.