Vietnam could achieve 8-10% 2026 GDP growth with well-controlled fiscal, monetary policies: experts

At the Vietnam Investment Forum 2026, organized by the business news site VietnamBiz in Ho Chi Minh City on Tuesday, economists expressed confidence in Vietnam’s economic fundamentals but stressed the need to keep key financial indicators such as exchange rates, interest rates, and inflation under control to sustain high growth.

“Maintaining exchange rate stability not only helps businesses plan with confidence but also strengthens international investor trust, allowing the State Bank of Vietnam to pursue growth-supportive policies without unsettling capital markets,” said Le Anh Tuan, CEO of Dragon Capital, a foreign asset management firm in Vietnam.

According to Tuan, inflation risks remain low as domestic consumption has yet to create significant price pressure.

However, he stressed that the exchange rate remains a crucial factor.

“As long as the exchange rate stays stable, monetary policy should remain accommodative," he said.

"The extent of easing, however, will depend on market conditions."

Tuan said Vietnam could fully reach 8-10 percent GDP growth in 2026 if economic management remains consistent, prudent, and effective.

World Bank economist for Vietnam Sacha Dray said the country has made significant progress in controlling capital flows and managing monetary policy.

He praised Vietnam’s strong foreign exchange reserves, which enhance its ability to stabilize the currency, and highlighted the flexibility of policy management that allows it to adapt effectively to global fluctuations.

However, experts cautioned that domestic interest rates have begun to edge up even as global rates ease.

Dang Van Thanh, chairman of TTC Group, a Vietnamese conglomerate, described exchange rates, interest rates, and inflation as a ‘triad of challenges’ businesses must navigate to remain efficient.

“In every economic cycle and sector, there are winners and losers," he said.

"The key lies in sound management and adaptability to stay resilient."

Le Duy Binh, director of Economica Vietnam, said that despite global headwinds, Vietnam has maintained steady growth of 6.5–7 percent in recent years, with some years exceeding 8 percent — evidence of its strengthening economic fundamentals.

Vietnam’s total trade turnover in 2025 is projected to reach a record US$800–850 billion, underscoring the competitiveness and international reputation of its exports.

Retail and service revenues are also expected to grow 9–11 percent, reflecting the rising purchasing power of the country’s 100 million consumers, now a key driver of domestic demand.

Public investment is accelerating, with higher disbursement rates and major infrastructure projects coming online, adding further momentum to growth.

In the private sector, the Politburo’s Resolution No. 68-NQ/TW has revitalized the business community, fueling a surge in new and returning enterprises and accelerating foreign direct investment disbursement.

According to Binh, macroeconomic and political stability, along with strong consumer and investor confidence, forms a solid foundation for Vietnam to expand growth in 2026.