Vietnam needs over $200bn from stock market in next 5 years

Speaking at the event, Bui Hoang Hai, vice-chairman of the State Securities Commission of Vietnam, said total investment demand in the 2026-30 period is estimated at VND38,000 trillion ($1.4 trillion).

The state budget can only provide approximately VND8,500 trillion ($323 billion), or 20 percent, leaving the remaining 80 percent to be sourced from private and international capital.

Hai said restructuring capital channels has become increasingly important as financial resources remain limited and credit growth approaches its ceiling.

He argued that the stock market should play a bigger role as a medium- and long-term capital channel.

The target of $212 billion is more than twice the total raised from 2020 to 2025.

Dang Nguyet Minh, research director at Vietnam-focused asset management company Dragon Capital, said Vietnam’s credit-to-GDP ratio is around 146 percent.

While Vietnam’s credit growth is not the highest in the region, it has consistently outpaced GDP growth, narrowing room for expansion.

Minh estimated bank credit continues to grow 15-16 percent annually, compared with real GDP growth of 3-5 percent.

Within the next five years, Vietnam’s credit-to-GDP ratio could surpass those of Thailand and Singapore and rank among the highest in Asia.

Minh warned that heavy reliance on bank loans raises corporate funding costs.

Interest rates have already increased by 2-2.5 percent since the start of this year, with some firms facing even higher costs.

Nguyen Duy Linh, CEO of Saigon-Hanoi Securities JSC, emphasized that liquidity reflects market cycles but it is not a major concern if development is on the right track.

He said restoring investor confidence is key to reviving liquidity.

Throughout the development of Vietnam’s stock market, both market capitalization and liquidity have grown over time, while the current decline is mainly driven by short-term cyclical factors.

Linh added that synchronized measures, including improving listed companies’ quality, enhancing the stock market’s transparency, and expanding institutional investors, would attract capital flows.

The Saigon-Hanoi Securities leader said domestic investors, particularly individuals, are expected to remain the market’s main driving force in the years to come.

Therefore, addressing structural bottlenecks quickly will be essential to rebuilding investor confidence.

Dang Thanh Tam, chairman of Kinh Bac City Development Holding Corporation, argued that unlocking capital flows requires not only expanding supply but restructuring financing channels, improving listed companies’ quality, and reinforcing investor confidence.

Tam suggested banks focus on short-term working capital for small and medium enterprises, while large firms should issue bonds, stocks, and work with major funds.

He stressed that the quality of financial products determines Vietnam’s ability to attract long-term investment.

The country needs more transparent, high-quality companies to draw sustained investment.