Vietnam real estate faces 4 major risks in 2026: VARS

VARS said newly issued land price frameworks, combined with higher land price adjustment coefficients, are expected to raise land costs and complicate project development, creating a major constraint for the market next year.

The association urged authorities to issue land price adjustment coefficients at reasonable levels to support real estate investment.

Other risks include persistent difficulties in land clearance and slow implementation of revised laws on land, construction, and real estate business, which VARS attributed to limited capacity and experience among some local officials, increasing costs and delays for developers.

VARS also warned that lending rates have risen sharply in a short period, putting pressure on both developers and homebuyers, and said credit controls should be applied cautiously to avoid disrupting capital flows.

According to VARS, Vietnam’s property market became more balanced in 2025 as supply improved, with about 128,000 new housing units launched nationwide, the highest level since 2019.

However, it said supply remains skewed, with a shortage of affordable housing and around 25 percent of new apartment units priced above VND100 million (US$3,808) per square meter.

As supply increases, the market is entering a phase of stronger competition, with prices remaining high but liquidity uneven across regions and segments, VARS said.

The association added that rising prices, higher interest rates, and greater transparency are increasing risks for speculative investors, while those relying heavily on leverage or short-term strategies face growing pressure.

VARS said property prices are unlikely to surge in the long term but will also be difficult to decline sharply, supported by housing demand, economic growth, and continued infrastructure investment.