Vietnam warns of strong El Nino risk, potential drought, water shortages

The ministry said the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is shifting from La Nina to neutral conditions and could intensify to moderate or strong levels by late 2026, with a 20-percent to 25-percent chance of becoming very strong between October and December and potentially lasting into 2027.

Early signs of water stress have already appeared, with heat arriving earlier than average and rainfall from the start of the year to mid-April down 10 percent to 40 percent nationwide compared with long-term averages.

River flows and water levels in several basins have fallen to some of the lowest levels recorded for the same period, including parts of the Red River and Ayun River.

If El Nino develops as forecast, average temperatures are expected to rise above normal, with more frequent and intense heatwaves than in 2025.

Rainfall could drop 25 percent to 50 percent during the late 2026 to early 2027 period, while the rainy season may end earlier and water resources across river basins continue to decline.

Flows on the Da River system between May and July are projected to be 10 percent to 25 percent below average, increasing risks to downstream water supply and energy security, the ministry said.

Drought and saltwater intrusion risks are expected to rise, particularly in the South Central Coast, Central Highlands, and Mekong Delta during the 2026–27 dry season, with widespread shortages possible in early 2027.

The ministry said that while overall rainfall may decrease during El Nino periods, short bursts of heavy rain could still trigger flash floods, landslides, and urban flooding.

Storm and tropical depression activity in the East Vietnam Sea is expected to be below average, though strong and unpredictable storms remain possible.