Vietnamese Robusta coffee prices expected to stay high

Robusta prices averaged VND93,000 (US$3.6) per kilogram at the end of the week, down VND1,000 ($0.03), or 1.06 percent, from the previous crop.

Domestic coffee prices are currently higher than those on the London market, said Thai Nhu Hiep, chairman of Vinh Hiep Company in Gia Lai Province and vice-chairman of the Vietnam Coffee Cocoa Association.

Last week, Robusta coffee prices on the London exchange for January 2027 delivery fluctuated sharply, closing at $3,454 per metric ton on October 10 (Vietnam time), equivalent to VND90,000 ($3.47) per kilogram.

This represented an increase of $6 per metric ton, or 0.17 percent, compared with the previous week’s close on October 3.

Using the January 2027 coffee price on the London market as a reference, exporters could only make a profit if they purchased coffee at between VND80,000 and VND85,000 ($3.08-3.28) per kilogram.

However, Vietnamese farmers are reluctant to sell at prices below VND90,000 per kilogram.

“The market remains in a waiting phase because buyers and sellers have yet to agree on prices,” Hiep said.

He said that Vietnam’s 2025-26 coffee crop, which ended in September, produced an estimated more than two million metric tons, equivalent to over 34 million 60-kilogram bags.

Production in the 2026-27 crop is forecast to decline by around five percent due to unfavorable weather conditions, particularly during the harvesting period.

On the demand side, the global coffee market is in a relatively balanced position, with supply just sufficient to meet demand, Hiep said.

Consumption in several markets, particularly China, has been growing strongly, with demand increasing by five percent, making a sharp decline in prices less likely.

Farmers’ stronger financial positions are another key factor supporting prices.

Having benefited from favorable prices in previous crops, coffee growers now have greater financial resources and are playing a more decisive role in the market.

Farmers are hoping to secure prices above VND90,000 per kilogram for the new crop.

If prices fall below that threshold, they are likely to sell only around 20 percent of their early-season harvest to cover production costs for the new crop and prepare for the Lunar New Year spending.

Roasters expect coffee prices to remain elevated

Coffee roasters are also anticipating continued price strength.

With inventories running low, manufacturers that need raw materials to maintain production may have to raise their purchase prices to secure supplies.

Nguyen Thi Tho, co-founder of Minh Dung Coffee Trading Company, which operates the Tho Dung wood-roasted coffee brand in Dak Lak Province, also expects raw Robusta coffee prices to remain at VND90,000 per kilogram or higher, even as the harvest reaches its peak.

She attributed the outlook partly to an expected decline in production compared with the previous year.

Coffee-growing areas have shrunk considerably as farmers switch to more profitable crops, including durian and passion fruit.

In addition, unfavorable weather has resulted in smaller coffee beans in some areas.

“We hope coffee growers can sell their beans at good prices while businesses can access high-quality raw materials,” Tho said.

Vietnam’s coffee exports surge

Vietnam exported some 126,500 metric tons of coffee in September, generating around $562 million in revenue, up 57 percent in volume and 19 percent in value year on year, according to the association’s report.

Robusta coffee accounted for nearly 106,500 metric tons of total exports, worth over $406 million.

For the entire 2025-26 crop year, Vietnam exported an estimated 1.8 million metric tons of coffee, earning some $8.5 billion, up 21 percent in volume and one percent in value year on year.