Vietnam’s 2026 growth hinges on tariff negotiation signals: Standard Chartered

Nguyen Thuy Hanh, CEO of Standard Chartered Vietnam, told a press briefing in Ho Chi Minh City on Tuesday that Vietnam recorded a strong economic performance in 2025, with GDP growth reaching 8.02 percent, despite tariff-related developments and geopolitical volatility emerging early in the year and raising concerns among market participants.

Building on this momentum, and as Vietnam and other regional economies have partially adapted to tariff pressures while negotiations remain ongoing, Standard Chartered forecasts that Vietnam’s economy will continue to grow in 2026.

Tim Leelahaphan, senior economist for Vietnam and Thailand at Standard Chartered Bank, said the bank projects Vietnam’s GDP growth at 7.2 percent this year.

This is a fairly robust growth rate. After three consecutive years of strong expansion, Vietnam stands out as an economy capable of sustaining solid growth, he said.

According to Leelahaphan, this is the highest GDP growth forecast in the region among Standard Chartered’s projections.

Given that the outcome of U.S.-Vietnam tariff negotiations is still pending, the bank anticipates a more cautious expansion in the first half of 2026, with the expectation of a stronger acceleration toward the end of the year.

If tariff negotiations conclude earlier than expected, Vietnam’s economic growth could be stronger in the first half, he said.

Also, he recommended that the Vietnamese government consider implementing growth-stimulus measures earlier in the year instead of waiting until the traditional year-end period.

If such measures are implemented, part of the strong recovery that typically occurs in the second half of the year could be brought forward, making a 10-percent growth rate potentially achievable, Leelahaphan said.

Credit growth creates room for domestic firms

Given Vietnam's ambitious 10-percent GDP growth target, Standard Chartered expects greater contributions from non-manufacturing sectors, particularly as the real estate market shows signs of recovery.

Meanwhile, Hanh noted that monetary policy and credit growth are expected to continue supporting Vietnam’s economy in 2026.

With the State Bank of Vietnam setting a credit growth target of around 15 percent, lower than the 19.1 percent recorded the previous year, she believes the moderation will not pose significant challenges, given that businesses had relatively favorable access to capital in the prior year.

Regarding real estate, she cautioned that the sector still carries inherent risks.

As such, banks should prioritize capital flows into segments that meet genuine demand and deliver positive economic spillovers, such as social housing, industrial real estate, and residential housing, to ensure better risk control while supporting sustainable growth.

Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh has directed ministries and local authorities nationwide to step up efforts to achieve GDP growth of at least 10 percent and raise per capita GDP to between US$5,400 and $5,500 in 2026.