Vietnam’s coffee exports reach a record high, yet questions loom over 2026

Analysts expect coffee prices to remain favorable through 2025 and into early 2026, although volatility may increase later, posing risks for Vietnamese exporters engaged in hoarding or speculative trading.

Europe remains Vietnam’s biggest buyer of coffee.

A record hard to break

Vietnam’s coffee industry closed the 2024-2025 crop year with record export earnings of $8.4 billion, the highest in its history, according to the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (VICOFA).

From October 2024 to September 2025, the country exported more than 1.5 million tonnes of coffee, up 1.8 percent in volume but 55.5 percent in value from the previous crop year. 

The average export price surged 52.7 percent year on year to $5,610, reflecting a strong upswing in global coffee prices.

Europe remained Vietnam’s largest buyer, taking in over 710,000 tonnes worth $4 billion, or about 47 percent of total shipments. 

Germany was the top destination with 196,000 tonnes, followed by Italy (125,000 tonnes), Spain (110,000 tonnes), Japan (90,000 tonnes), and the United States (88,000 tonnes).

As of mid-October, Vietnam’s coffee exports had already reached 1.27 million tonnes, worth $7.21 billion, up 12.5 percent in volume and over 62 percent in value year on year.

VICOFA officials said the surge in export value, rising more than 55 percent despite minimal volume growth, marks a milestone that will be 'hard to break,' underscoring how Vietnam has benefited from the global price rally.

Can Vietnam’s coffee sector keep its edge?

Coffee farmers across Vietnam have begun the new harvest season with bean prices ranging between VND116,000 ($4.55) and VND118,000 ($4.63) per kilogram, slightly higher than last week and among the highest levels in recent years.

VICOFA chairman Nguyen Nam Hai said prices in the 2025-2026 crop year are unlikely to stay as strong as this season's, as production is expected to rise 5-10 percent. 

He added that predicting price movements remains difficult given increasing climate risks, trade tensions, speculative activity, and currency fluctuations.

Do Ha Nam, chairman and chief executive of Intimex Group, said limited selling in Brazil and Vietnam, the world's top two coffee exporters, has supported prices in recent months, but values could ease once Brazil enters its main harvest in 2026.

Traders in Ho Chi Minh City warned that companies planning to stockpile large volumes should act cautiously, as domestic prices remain closely tied to international exchanges and may fluctuate sharply.

Farm-gate prices between VND70,000 ($2.66) and VND100,000 ($3.80) per kilogram still ensure strong profits for growers, whose average production costs stand at VND35,000-40,000 ($1.33-1.52), according to VICOFA.

The Ministry of Agriculture and Environment said Vietnam's coffee-growing area reached 731,900 hectares in the 2024-2025 crop year, including 678,500 hectares under harvest.

The Southeast Asian country has developed a traceability database covering 137,000 hectares, with expansion underway to 462,000 hectares, about 80 percent of the Central Highlands region.

Thanks to progress on traceability, the European Union has placed Vietnam in the 'low-risk' category under its new European Union Regulation, meaning only one percent of coffee shipments will be subject to inspection.