Vietnam’s declining birth rate raises concerns over workforce, population aging

Tackling the demographic challenge will require policies that not only encourage childbirth but also create conditions that enable young people to start families, raise children and remain in the workforce.

If Vietnam’s fertility rate continues to decline, the country could exit its golden demographic period around 2036. 

The working-age population is projected to begin shrinking around 2044, while the total population could start declining around 2051, according to the Vietnam Population Authority under the Ministry of Health.

At the same time, Vietnam is aging rapidly. In 2024, the country had about 14.2 million people aged 60 and above, with the aging index reaching 60.2 percent, a sharp increase from 2019.

The number of people aged 60 and above is projected to approach 18 million by 2030.

This means fewer children today could translate into a smaller workforce and a much larger elderly population in the years ahead.

Fewer children, greater pressure on younger generations

It may seem that having fewer children would reduce the financial burden on families. But a smaller family does not necessarily mean less responsibility in the long term.

In a family with only one child, for example, that child could eventually be responsible for caring for both parents and grandparents.

As smaller families become more common, the responsibility for caring for older people could increasingly fall on younger generations.

The issue extends beyond individual households. A rapidly aging population will also increase pressure on social security, healthcare and long-term care systems.

Vietnam therefore needs to view low fertility as part of a broader demographic trend: fewer children eventually mean fewer working-age people, while the number of older people continues to grow.

Without early action, the resulting pressures could be felt across both the economy and families.

Creating conditions for young people to have children

Addressing the decline in fertility requires a shift from simply encouraging people to have children toward creating an environment in which young people want to marry, can afford to start families and have the means to raise and educate children.

One possible policy framework could focus on six key conditions.

First, young people need opportunities to meet.

They need healthy environments in which to socialize, make friends, get to know potential partners and build relationships.

If marriage-matching programs are implemented, they should be modern, voluntary and respectful rather than resembling administrative matchmaking.

The Ministry of Health’s plan to implement a program ensuring replacement-level fertility through 2030 has also called for developing friendship clubs, marriage and family counseling programs, and initiatives to help young men and women meet.

Second, young people need sufficient financial security to marry.

Employment, income, housing and social security directly affect decisions about starting a family.

A 28- or 30-year-old without a home, with an unstable income and facing high rental costs may find it difficult to imagine raising two children in the future.

Social housing policies therefore need to better address the needs of young families and parents with young children.

Vietnam’s new Population Law has moved in this direction by stipulating that people with two or more biological children receive priority in purchasing, renting or entering into rent-to-own arrangements for social housing under housing regulations.

Third, young people need sufficient security to have children without sacrificing their careers.

Young people need to feel confident that becoming parents will not jeopardize their employment or professional prospects.

This means protecting employment after childbirth, preventing discrimination against pregnant women, helping women return to work and encouraging greater participation by men in childcare.

Childcare centers, preschools and other childcare services should also be developed near workplaces.

If women continue to feel they must choose between having children and pursuing their careers, pronatalist policies are unlikely to produce lasting results.

Fourth, families need sufficient financial support throughout the child-rearing process.

Policies should not focus only on a one-time payment at birth. Support should cover the broader costs of raising a child, from birth and the first three years through preschool and primary school, as well as healthcare and education.

The current VND2 million (US$77) support payment may provide some encouragement, but it is unlikely to be a strong incentive for couples to have children.

Fifth, young people need access to healthcare and reliable reproductive information.

This includes information about reproductive health, age-related fertility, infertility prevention, premarital health checkups, preconception counseling, prenatal screening, and maternal and child healthcare.

The goal should not be to pressure young people into having children early, but to ensure they have enough information to make informed reproductive decisions.

This is particularly important as many young people are delaying marriage and childbirth. Their right to choose must be respected, but those choices should also be informed by an understanding of reproductive health and the biological limits of fertility associated with age.

Finally, young people need confidence in marriage and family life.

While employment, income, housing and childcare are the “hard links” in supporting childbirth, confidence in marriage is a “soft link” that can influence the broader decision-making process.

If society wants young people to marry and have children, it needs to help young people see marriage as a potential source of happiness and stability.

That requires greater emphasis on education about love, marriage, family, sexuality, reproductive health, parenting skills, gender equality and conflict resolution as young people prepare for family and adult life.

A modern society must also respect individuals’ and couples’ decisions about whether to marry and have children.

Ultimately, the issue is no longer simply whether Vietnam has policies to address its declining fertility rate. The more important questions are whether those policies are strong enough, sufficiently long-term, properly targeted and effectively implemented.

* This article was originally written in Vietnamese by doctor Mai Xuan Phuong and rewritten in English by Tuoi Tre News.