Ministry explains Vietnam's $19.42bn 9-month trade deficit before September's $1.27bn surplus

Nguyen Anh Son, director of the ministry's Import-Export Department, told Tuoi Tre (Youth) online newspaper that the trade deficit during the first nine months primarily reflected stronger demand as businesses expanded production, particularly in export-oriented processing and manufacturing industries.

In the first nine months of 2026, exports stood at $434.3 billion, up 24.5 percent, while imports reached about $453.72 billion, up 36.7 percent, resulting in a trade deficit of $19.42 billion.

Why imports have grown faster than exports

Vietnam's industrial production index rose 12.3 percent in the first nine months from the same period last year, the highest nine-month growth rate since 2019, according to the ministry.

As production expands, businesses need to import more machinery, equipment, raw materials, components and spare parts to meet manufacturing and export demand.

Domestic production also remains partly dependent on overseas supplies for certain groups of goods, including energy and chemicals.

In addition, some manufacturing industries remain concentrated on assembly and processing. As a result, higher exports are accompanied by higher imports, particularly in sectors such as electronics, computers, machinery and equipment.

"Most imports under the current structure are directly used for production, exports and investment," Son said.

He said this reflected Vietnam's deeper integration into global supply chains.

Therefore, the increase in imports should not be viewed simply as a negative development, as the purpose and structure of imports are important factors in assessing their impact on the economy.

However, the situation also highlights a longer-term challenge for Vietnam: strengthening domestic production capacity and reducing dependence on imported inputs.

The country needs to develop supporting industries, diversify supply sources and gradually increase localization rates, while reducing reliance on imported materials and components that Vietnamese companies are capable of producing, Son said.

Stronger links between domestic and foreign-invested enterprises are also needed to help local companies participate more deeply in global supply chains and increase the value retained in Vietnam.

September surplus signals improving exports

Following nine consecutive months of trade deficits beginning in December 2025, Vietnam's trade balance improved in September, Son said.

The country recorded a $1.27 billion trade surplus in September, after sharply narrowing its deficit from $3.6 billion in July to $113 million in August.

The surplus was driven in large part by a strong increase in exports of computers, electronic products and components.

Official data showed that exports of computers, electronic products and components reached $22.6 billion in September, 2.1 times the level recorded in the same month last year and accounting for nearly 38 percent of total exports.

According to Son, the reversal to a trade surplus was a positive signal showing that exports continued to grow strongly and businesses' ability to fulfill orders was improving.

However, he cautioned that the improvement had only been observed over August and September and therefore required further monitoring, analysis and assessment.

Export and production outlook remains positive

Son said industrial production is expected to recover further in the fourth quarter as businesses accelerate production toward the year-end.

Export-oriented processing and manufacturing industries, particularly electronics, computers, machinery, equipment, components and spare parts, are expected to continue growing.

Traditional export sectors, including textiles and garments, footwear, agricultural processing and seafood, are also expected to have further room for growth.

However, the production and export outlook will depend on global economic conditions, market demand, input costs and the trade policies of other countries, Son said.

If there are no major fluctuations, exports could grow by 23-25 percent for the full year compared with 2025.

Vietnam would still likely record a trade deficit for the year, but the gap could narrow significantly. 

Under a positive scenario, the deficit could fall to between $7 billion and $9 billion, Son said.