Vietnam faces El Niño-driven risks of heat, drought, strong storms

The El Niño phenomenon is expected to raise average temperatures, intensify heatwaves, and reduce overall rainfall, while still allowing for the possibility of stronger storms and extreme weather events, said Mai Van Khiem, director of the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting.

Speaking at a conference on the 2026 hydro-meteorological outlook organized by the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment, Khiem said the probability of a strong to very strong El Niño had risen to between 62 percent and 65 percent in early June, up from about 20 percent in March.

Current forecasts suggest the event could be comparable to the 2015–16 El Niño, and may rank among the strongest since 1950.

Vietnam is expected to see eight to 10 storms or tropical depressions in the East Vietnam Sea this year, below the long-term average, with three to five potentially affecting land.

Storm activity is likely to concentrate between July and September in northern Vietnam, and between October and November in central regions, with potential late-season impacts in the south.

Khiem said temperatures in 2026 are forecast to be higher than the long-term average, with more frequent and more intense heatwaves than in 2025.

The country is also expected to experience 16–19 widespread heavy rainfall events, fewer than average, mainly during the rainy season from late June to November, with the season likely ending earlier in south-central coastal areas, the Central Highlands, and southern Vietnam.

He warned that the total national rainfall could fall 25 percent to 50 percent below average, while localized heavy rain and extreme storm events could still be recorded.

Khiem also cautioned that reduced upstream flow in the Mekong River could worsen saltwater intrusion in the Mekong Delta, with saline water advancing further inland and affecting agricultural production.

He urged authorities to store and conserve freshwater in river systems and reservoirs and to adjust agricultural production schedules and crop structures to reduce risks from water shortages and salinity.

He said drought conditions and salinity intrusion could affect the 2026 summer-autumn crop in central Vietnam and the 2026–27 winter-spring crop in the Mekong Delta, as well as perennial crops such as coffee, pepper, and durian in the Central Highlands.

Deputy Minister of Agriculture and Environment Le Cong Thanh said Vietnam is expected to be affected by El Niño in the second half of 2026 and early 2027.

He said both domestic and international forecasts indicate a strong event similar to 2015–16, which caused severe drought and saltwater intrusion in south-central Vietnam, the Central Highlands, and the Mekong Delta.

Thanh noted that El Niño does not necessarily eliminate extreme rainfall, citing historic flooding in the northern province of Quang Ninh in mid-2015 during a previous El Niño period.