HCMC – Vietnam could face more frequent heatwaves, drought, water shortages and saltwater intrusion in the coming months as a strong El Niño event develops, according to the country’s meteorological authority.

El Niño, which officially formed in the central equatorial Pacific in June 2026, is expected to strengthen through the rest of the year and may persist into early 2027, Deputy Director of the Vietnam Meteorological and Hydrological Administration Dang Thanh Mai was quoted by the Vietnam News Agency as saying at a press briefing on June 17. Climate models from Vietnam and international forecasting centers indicate a 60-65% probability that the phenomenon will reach a very strong intensity. Authorities said the event could be comparable to the powerful 2015-2016 El Niño, one of the strongest recorded since 1950. Mai said the transition from neutral conditions to El Niño had occurred unusually quickly, reflecting rapid warming in the central Pacific and favorable ocean-atmosphere interactions that could support further strengthening. If forecasts materialize, temperatures across Vietnam are expected to exceed long-term averages by 0.5-1.5 degrees Celsius in the second half of 2026. From October to December, temperatures could be 1-2 degrees Celsius higher than normal. Northern and central Vietnam may experience more heatwaves than usual during the remainder of the summer, with the possibility of record-breaking temperatures. Rainfall is forecast to decline by 25-50% across much of the country, particularly in the South Central Coast, Central Highlands and southern regions. The reduction could increase the risk of drought, water shortages and saltwater intrusion, especially in areas with high agricultural and domestic water demand. The Vietnam Meteorological and Hydrological Administration warned that fewer tropical storms typically affect Vietnam during El Niño years, but powerful storms can still occur and cause significant damage. Authorities pointed to the 2015-2016 El Niño as an example of the phenomenon’s impact. That period brought prolonged heatwaves, severe drought and widespread rainfall shortages. Saltwater intrusion in the Mekong Delta arrived early and penetrated deeper inland, affecting agricultural production and local livelihoods. In 2015, the number of storms and tropical depressions in the East Sea fell to about half the long-term average. However, meteorologists cautioned that a lower storm count does not eliminate the risk of destructive weather events. The agency also noted that El Niño years can still produce extreme rainfall despite overall lower precipitation levels. Historical examples include severe flooding in Quang Ninh Province in July 2015 and major floods in Quang Nam and Quang Ngai provinces following Typhoon Ketsana in 2009. The hydrometeorology administration said it is closely monitoring the development of El Niño and will continue issuing forecasts and warnings to help authorities, businesses and residents prepare for potential impacts.