Vietnam eyes $45–46bn in monthly exports in 2026 amid global headwinds

The target implies expected export growth of 15–16 percent this year and would build on Vietnam’s strong 2025 performance, when total trade turnover reached $930 billion, up 18.2 percent from a year earlier, according to ministry data.

Vietnam posted a $20 billion trade surplus in 2025, extending its run of annual surpluses to a tenth consecutive year and helping stabilize the currency and foreign exchange reserves, officials said at a government conference on export promotion.

But officials cautioned that sustaining momentum would be harder in 2026, citing rising geopolitical uncertainty, protectionist trade policies in major markets, and structural weaknesses at home.

“Export growth must shift from scale to quality,” Nguyen Anh Son, director general of the ministry’s Agency of Foreign Trade, said, adding that Vietnam needs to raise domestic value-added content, technology intensity, and economic self-reliance.

Vietnam’s export structure has improved markedly over the past three decades, with manufactured goods now accounting for about 85 percent of exports, compared with a heavy reliance on raw materials before the mid-1990s, the ministry said.

However, officials warned of growing concentration risks.

Electronics and mobile phones dominate export earnings, while the United States absorbs about one-third of Vietnam’s exports, leaving the economy exposed to supply-chain disruptions and tariff actions.

Foreign-invested firms also account for roughly two-thirds of export turnover, highlighting the need to strengthen domestic companies and develop Vietnamese brands rather than remaining primarily a contract manufacturing base, Tran Thanh Hai, deputy director general of the Agency of Foreign Trade at the ministry, said.

To meet the 2026 target, Vietnam plans to expand supporting industries, deepen links between foreign and local firms, promote services exports such as logistics and tourism, and tap emerging markets in the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America, officials said.

Economist Can Van Luc said infrastructure upgrades, greener logistics, export credit support, and higher localization rates would be critical if Vietnam is to maintain double-digit export growth while reducing vulnerability to external shocks.