East Vietnam Sea likely to see fewer storms in November as strong El Nino persists

The center said in its monthly weather and climate bulletin issued on Sunday that El Nino was expected to remain very strong in November.

El Nino is a climate phenomenon marked by the periodic warming of surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, which can disrupt weather patterns worldwide, including those in Vietnam.

The East Vietnam Sea typically sees around 1.5 storms in November each year, with about 0.9 making landfall in Vietnam.

Weather experts forecast that the sea would remain free of storms during the first half of November.

Cold-air outbreaks are also expected to be weaker than usual, with average temperatures nationwide forecast to be 1-2 degrees Celsius above the long-term average.

Rain is still likely across the country in November, with moderate to heavy downpours potentially concentrated in the central and southern regions.

Total rainfall in northern Vietnam is forecast to be 15-30 percent above the long-term average, while areas from Thanh Hoa to Ha Tinh provinces and the south are expected to receive rainfall close to average levels.

Other regions are forecast to see rainfall 20-40 percent below the average for the same period.

October was unusually hot in northern Vietnam, where average temperatures were 2-3 degrees Celsius above the long-term average, while temperatures nationwide were generally 1-2 degrees higher than normal, according to the center.

The widespread hot spell in early October was the first such event recorded across the entire northern region since 1991.

There was only one weak cold-air outbreak in October, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms but little relief from the heat.

Nguyen Van Huong, head of the center's weather forecasting department, attributed the unusually high temperatures to the very strong El Nino.

Sea surface temperatures in the Nino 3.4 region were 2.1 degrees Celsius above the long-term average in September and rose to 2.4 degrees in mid-October 2026, observational data showed.

Huong said that during years with very strong El Nino conditions, average air temperatures from the autumn of one year through the following summer tend to be above the long-term average, with some months recording increases of 1-2 degrees Celsius.

The subtropical high-pressure ridge also remained strong over northern Vietnam during the recent period, increasing sunshine and pushing temperatures higher, he added.

El Nino was also blamed for the lack of storms and tropical depressions over the East Vietnam Sea affecting Vietnam in October, making it a rare year in which the month passed without a storm affecting the country.

Rainfall in October was also significantly lower than in previous years.

Total rainfall in northern Vietnam and some parts of the Central Highlands last month was 40-90 percent below average, while other regions recorded deficits of 20-50 percent.