Rural domestic water shortages are highly likely from Vietnam’s north-central region southward to the Mekong Delta. Photo: Phuong Quyen
The ministry made the assessment in a report sent to the prime minister on Wednesday on measures to respond to El Nino’s impacts during the 2026-27 period.
El Nino-related drought and saltwater intrusion could last until next May in the Mekong Delta, Central Highlands, and southeastern provinces.
The conditions could persist through next July or August in the north-central and south-central coastal regions.
In southern Vietnam’s Mekong Delta, river inflows are forecast to be 15-20 percent below the long-term average.
Saltwater intrusion could reach 50-70 kilometers inland along the Mekong River’s estuaries, deeper than usual by 7-13 km.
At the Vam Co River, salinity could penetrate 110-130 km inland, 30-42 km farther than usual.
The impacts are expected to begin in late December and peak from January through April next year.
The ministry estimated that drought and water shortages linked to saltwater intrusion could threaten about 85,800 hectares of winter-spring rice in Tay Ninh, Dong Thap, Vinh Long, Can Tho, and Ca Mau.
Another 120,000 hectares of rice-shrimp farming areas in An Giang and Ca Mau, which rely mainly on rainwater, could also be affected.
About 45,000 hectares of fruit orchards in coastal areas of Tay Ninh, Dong Thap, Vinh Long, and Can Tho are likewise at risk.
In the north-central and south-central coastal regions, reservoirs are forecast to hold only 70-80 percent of their designed capacity by the end of the rainy season.
With temperatures expected to be 1-2 degrees Celsius above average, around 34,000-61,500 hectares of winter-spring crops and 83,000-140,500 hectares of summer-autumn crops could be affected.
The ministry added that 1.3 million hectares in the Central Highlands and 428,000 hectares in the southeastern region, mostly perennial crops outside irrigation zones, face drought risk.
Rural domestic water supplies are also at risk, with shortages considered highly likely from the north-central region southward to the Mekong Delta.
Around 447,000 rural households could be affected, especially those in coastal and highland areas.
Mekong Delta urged to plant winter-spring rice early
The ministry asked local authorities to prepare for different El Nino-related scenarios during the 2026-27 dry season, including the possibility of a strong and prolonged El Nino event previously seen in 2014-16 and 2019-20.
They were told to prioritize water distribution for essential needs such as domestic use, industry, livestock, and key crops, while operating reservoirs carefully to avoid shortages later in the dry season.
For crop production, the ministry recommended adjusting crop calendars to available water supplies.
Mekong Delta farmers are recommended to harvest the 2026 autumn-winter rice crop early to prepare land for the early planting of the 2026-27 winter-spring crop in saltwater intrusion-prone zones to minimize losses.
For perennial crops, authorities should review fruit orchards and nurseries vulnerable to drought and saltwater intrusion and prepare tailored responses.
They also need to develop provincial-level disaster response plans ensuring household-level water supply.
The ministry has proposed that the prime minister issue a directive to strengthen nationwide measures against El Nino-driven drought, water shortages, and saltwater intrusion during the 2026-27 period.
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